A Thought Experiment
This article seeks to provide context by taking creative liberties, forecasting future events, and offering a path forward.

We appear to be living in consequential times, marked by upheaval and uncertainty. This article seeks to provide context by taking creative liberties, forecasting future events, and offering a path forward. Written as a thought experiment, it is guided by the wisdom of two enduring observations.
As Lewis Carroll’s Cheshire Cat remarked in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” This underscores the importance of intentionality and planning—qualities we must embrace if we are to navigate the complex challenges of our time.
Similarly, as Niall Ferguson observed in Civilization, “It is difficult to determine the true significance of events as they unfold, for we are immersed in their chaos and momentum.” In this author’s view, it is often beneficial to step back from the immediacy of current events and consider how future historians might interpret this era.
Blue Sky Thinking – Vantage Point of 2048
Reflecting on Israel’s enduring resilience, we uncover lessons not only for the Jewish state but for the global community navigating shared crises of confidence. This article offers a simplified framework for forging a better path forward, addressing the intertwined challenges of the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Syria, and the broader missteps of Western liberal democracies. By considering how historians in 2048 might interpret the post-7 October 2023 period, this author aims to chart a course that is both principled and pragmatic—one that honours the wisdom of history while meeting the urgent demands of the future.
Israel’s 100-Years War for Survival: 1948 to 2048
For centuries, the Levant has been synonymous with conflict, yet history demonstrates that peace transforms lives and nations. Treaties like the Abraham Accords have underscored that when Israel and its neighbours embrace diplomacy, the region flourishes economically, culturally, and socially. Today, Israel and the UAE collaborate on groundbreaking initiatives in technology, renewable energy, healthcare, and education, showcasing how partnership can bridge divides and build a brighter future for the region.
The years 2023–2026 marked a pivotal chapter in Israel’s “100-Years War for Survival,” defined by monumental geopolitical shifts and the permanent decline of Russian and Iranian influence in the region. This transformative period saw the dismantling of violent non-state actors and culminated in historic peace treaties with Lebanon and Syria before 2048, ushering in an era of unprecedented prosperity and collaboration across the Middle East.
These achievements were made possible through sustained punitive sanctions against the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran, coupled with decisive actions against terrorist organisations such as Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood. The leadership of these groups was neutralised, their financial networks dismantled, and their ideological influence significantly curtailed.
Aided by U.S. administrations beginning with the 47th President, Israel and the world’s Western liberal democracies adopted a “peace through strength” strategy complemented by targeted “maximum pressure campaigns” against destabilising forces. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, alongside other visionary regional leaders, spearheaded a coordinated effort to reshape the future of the Middle East. These initiatives not only redefined the region’s political landscape but also laid the foundation for enduring stability and mutual prosperity. Importantly, policy changes did not require the commitment of U.S. forces to the region.
A New Paradigm for Palestinians
Resolving Statelessness – Transformative Actions: By the late 2020s, the long-standing plight of displaced Palestinians was finally addressed through decisive and transformative action. The disestablishment of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) marked the end of an outdated and ineffective system, with responsibility for Palestinian welfare transitioning to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). This critical shift enabled groundbreaking policies, including granting citizenship to multi-generational Palestinians, ensuring that those who had resided in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan for decades became citizens of these respective countries.
Although initially met with resistance from host countries and criticism from activists in Western academia and media, the decision became a turning point. The newly appointed United Nations Secretary-General championed the move, declaring:
“No community can flourish while millions remain stateless for generations. This decision honours the principles of human dignity, sovereignty, and practical necessity. There is no better path forward.”
Regional Implementation and Economic Gains: With this long-avoided decision finally taken, Jordan led the way, followed by Lebanon and eventually Syria, each committing substantial resources to integrating their new citizens. These efforts prioritised deradicalisation and counterterrorism, ultimately yielding significant economic benefits and incentive payments from the international community for all three nations. Inspired by the United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Tolerance and Coexistence, these countries established institutions fostering inclusivity and social harmony. The UAE’s National Tolerance Programme, launched in 2016, served as a model for promoting mutual respect and peaceful coexistence among diverse communities. By 2048, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan had adopted similar frameworks, creating opportunities for former refugees to contribute positively, reducing the appeal of extremist ideologies and enhancing regional stability.
Security Infrastructure in Gaza: Around the Gaza Envelope, an 8-metre-high barrier of concrete T-Walls spanning 65 kilometres was constructed, effectively separating Gaza from Israel. As a reforming United Nations Secretary-General optimistically suggested, “the wall is needed now, but can come down later when no longer required.”
Within the Gaza Envelope, territory was divided into D, E, and F zones, each separated by impenetrable barriers manned by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). This structured division allowed peaceful communities that renounced terrorism to exist peacefully, free from intimidation and reprisal by irreconcilable remnants of Palestinian terror organisations.
Reconstruction, Clearance, and Oversight: Aid across the Gaza Envelope was coordinated by Israel’s Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), with funding partially sourced from the impounded bank accounts of Hamas and Palestinian Authority leaders, as well as reparations paid to Israel by Qatar and Iran. International aid agencies and the United Nations were granted limited and controlled access, ensuring aid distribution aligned with security priorities.
A critical precondition for progress in Gaza was the comprehensive clearance of Hamas infrastructure, weapons, and rocket caches. This extensive process was pivotal in ensuring long-term security and fostering an environment conducive to peaceful coexistence. Tragically, not all hostage remains were recoverable and additional IDF and Gazan civilian lives were lost, underscoring the devastating human toll of conflict.
Hamas leaders, who had initially sought sanctuary in Qatar and later Turkey, were ultimately handed over, extradited to Saudi Arabia, and executed following trial. These actions marked a significant step in dismantling the group’s global leadership and operational networks.
Governance of Zones D, E, and F: In Gaza, Zone D was eventually fully administered by local authorities following a decade of IDF supervision and support, marking a step toward local self-governance and stability. Zone E involved joint security coordination between Israel and Abraham Accords partners, ensuring a collaborative approach to maintaining order. Zone F, however, remained under full IDF control to address long-term deradicalisation and stability concerns.
In Zone F, Palestinians continued to reside primarily in temporary tented shelters for several decades. While this drew predictable criticism, particularly from antisemitic factions in Western nations, the United Nations Secretary-General contextualised this situation using data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). By the end of 2023, the total number of forcibly displaced individuals worldwide had reached over 122.6 million, including 32 million refugees under UNHCR’s mandate.
The Secretary-General noted that many of these displaced individuals lived in far worse conditions than the 2.2 million Gazans, some of whom remained committed to violent ideologies and activities. The Secretary-General highlighted that even in these circumstances, the resources and living conditions provided in Gaza’s Zone F exceeded those available to many peaceful displaced populations around the globe. Under this balanced perspective, the intergenerational humanitarian aid and support provided by Israel to Palestinians began to be viewed in a more favourable light.
Israel’s Commitment to Long-Term Security and Presence in Gaza: Initially unpopular in Israel, the mindset gradually shifted as Israelis recognised that these indispensable elements of national security could not be outsourced to the international community for fear of an UNRWA ‘Resurrected.’ The generation of Israelis who fought in Gaza and Lebanon in the aftermath of the October 7 Hamas atrocity collectively resolved to ensure that ‘this war’ in Gaza would be the ‘last war’ in Gaza. In time, this generation came to be known as ‘Israel’s finest generation.’
Historical Precedents for Sustained Oversight: The approach of maintaining an indefinite IDF presence in Gaza found precedent in the post-conflict occupations of Germany and Japan following World War II. In both cases, Allied forces remained for decades to oversee reconstruction, ensure security, and prevent the resurgence of extremist ideologies or hostile regimes.
Controlling Narratives and Media: Learning from the 2023–2025 Gaza war—during which international media uncritically echoed Hamas propaganda—Israel implemented stringent measures to control misinformation. International journalists, who often spread falsehoods that went “around the world before the truth puts its pants on,” as Churchill famously quipped, were prevented from accessing the Gaza Envelope.
Oversight was provided by the IDF Inspector General, supported by a select team of embedded representatives from Abraham Accords partner nations with oversight by the U.S. Ambassador to Israel. This collaborative arrangement ensured accountability, transparency, and adherence to security protocols while fostering regional cooperation. The United Nations Secretary General and the U.S. Secretary of State were both frequently briefed.
Reforming International Structures: Francesca Albanese and her organisation, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in the Palestinian Territories, long accused of bias and undermining Israel’s legitimacy, were defunded and ultimately disbanded.
This pivotal action was part of a broader realignment in how the international community approached peace in the region. Recognising the failures of previous frameworks, Western nations, led by the United States and Abraham Accords partners, redirected support toward strengthening Israel’s stabilising efforts.
Transformations in the West Bank – Governance and Leadership: In the West Bank—the regions of Judea and Samaria—Western leaders, along with the United Nations Secretary-General, maintained that Israel’s presence was necessary until Palestinian leadership capable of fostering coexistence emerged. By the late 2030s, a charismatic leader arose to head the Palestinian Authority after decades of corruption and disappointment. This leader championed reforms, introducing legislation in the Palestinian Legislative Council in Ramallah to outlaw extremist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Counterterrorism and Reform: Driven by international pressure, including the withholding of Western funding, significant reforms were implemented to address internal dissent. Palestinian irreconcilables were detained under a model reminiscent of Singapore’s post-independence approach, where individuals with incompatible ideologies were incarcerated until renouncing their views. For instance, during Operation Coldstore in 1963, Singapore detained over 100 leftist leaders and activists without trial to curb communist influence.
Innovative Deradicalisation Solutions: A unique prisoner exchange programme was established, transferring militants from the West Bank to Saudi Arabia in return for advanced Israeli agricultural technology. This arrangement strengthened regional cooperation, discouraged radicalisation among Palestinian youth, and reduced violence against leaders pursuing reconciliation with Israel. While time spent in Israeli prisons is often regarded as a badge of honour, incarceration in Saudi Arabia carries a far more intimidating and deterrent reputation to would-be Palestinian terrorists, amplifying the programme’s impact.
Peace Without Statehood: As of 2048, peaceful coexistence had been achieved without Palestinian statehood—an issue that once dominated international discourse but lost urgency after the departure of the Biden Administration in January 2025. While generational challenges remain within the Palestinian diaspora and among antisemitic and social Marxist groups in the Anglosphere, their influence has waned significantly.
Images of thriving Palestinians in Gaza’s Zone D and Zone E have become a powerful counter-narrative to extremist ‘river to the sea’ rhetoric, demonstrating that pragmatic governance and collaboration can achieve lasting peace.
Settlements: Rethinking Conventional Approaches: The notion that a future Palestinian state must be Judenrein (a term meaning “free of Jews,” associated with Nazi-era policies) was widely criticised as both racist and unworkable. Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s approach, which implied the removal of all Jewish communities from Judea and Samaria, faced significant backlash and was discredited by subsequent U.S. administrations and global opinion.
Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria came to be seen as indispensable for any future Palestinian state. While initial White House narratives ‘build baby build’ were initially seen as unhelpful, the charismatic 48th US President—who earlier served as Vice President—across an eight-year administration effectively messaged that Jewish industry, agriculture, and innovation were essential components for building a sustainable Palestinian economy. This was seconded by the United Nations Secretary General who recognised the unprecedented opportunity for peace in the middle east that consistent policy and U.S. leadership presented in the aftermath of the October 7 atrocity.
Demographics and Integration: Data from 2025 highlighted Israel’s diverse society, with 21% of Israelis identifying as Arabs—18% Muslim and 1.9% Christian. Drawing from this coexistence, strategists proposed that approximately 15% of any future Palestinian state could be Jewish, mirroring Israel’s successful integration of Arab citizens. This perspective challenged the traditional narrative of territorial exclusivity, advocating instead for mutual security and economic interdependence.
Alternative Frameworks for Peace: Historical precedents demonstrate that peace can be achieved without statehood through frameworks balancing autonomy, integration, and coexistence. For instance, the Kurdish Region in Iraq which functions as an autonomous entity under Iraq’s constitution, allowing self-governance and economic development without pursuing full statehood.
Second-Order Benefits: As global attention shifted away from an exclusive focus on Gaza, neglected communities worldwide began to experience renewed support. Refugees in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh, displaced families in the Sahel, and Venezuelan migrants across South America benefited from redirected humanitarian aid and resources.
Indigenous groups fighting for land rights, stateless populations yearning for recognition, and conflict zones like Yemen and the Tigray region saw fresh energy from international organisations and governments addressing their crises. This broader focus brought a sense of justice and equity to communities long relegated to the shadows.
Peace Between Lebanon and Israel
Peace between Lebanon and Israel was achieved in the early 2040s, marking a transformative milestone in Middle Eastern diplomacy. The discovery of vast oil and natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea created an unprecedented opportunity for collaboration. A resource-sharing agreement, brokered with strong U.S. support, allocated 50% of the proceeds to Lebanon and 50% to Israel, providing a compelling incentive for peace and stability.
This arrangement mirrored Israel’s historic peace treaty with Egypt in 1979, where the return of the Sinai Peninsula became a catalyst for lasting coexistence. Similarly, the resource-sharing agreement fostered mutual prosperity and collaboration, particularly following Hezbollah’s eradication as a political and military force.
Security and Reconstruction: The withdrawal of UNIFIL without replacement signified a significant shift in regional security dynamics. Deterrence was maintained through precise Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, effectively preventing its re-establishment south of the Litani River. These operations, sustained for approximately 15 years after the commencement of the Third Lebanon War (2023), systematically dismantled Hezbollah’s operational infrastructure and revenue streams, including its involvement in Lebanon’s lucrative drug trade.
Simultaneously, a global campaign to seize Hezbollah operatives’ assets provided critical funding for the reconstruction of northern Israeli towns such as Metula and Kiryat Shmona, which had suffered severe damage during the hostilities of 2023–2025.
Internal Resistance and Shia Cantonments: The 2030s were marked by intense violence in Lebanon as Hezbollah’s stranglehold faced unprecedented resistance. In actions reminiscent of a Dylan Thomas poem—”Do not go gentle into that good night, rage, rage against the dying of the light”—Christian, Druze, and Sunni communities rose up in coordinated efforts to reclaim their autonomy and nation from the tentacles of a resource-deprived and increasingly isolated Hezbollah.
In response to escalating attacks, Shia cantonments were established to contain the group’s dwindling but dangerous influence. These fortified zones aimed to prevent Hezbollah’s devastating tactic of choice: suicide attacks targeting civilian and military infrastructure. The conflict represented a turning point, as alliances among Lebanon’s diverse communities, coupled with external support, dismantled Hezbollah’s grip on the region, paving the way for a fragmented yet more balanced governance structure.
Enduring Peace: In the end, the combination of decisive military action, economic incentives, and strategic isolation created the conditions for the emergence of peace between Lebanon and Israel. The shared prosperity resulting from resource collaboration further strengthened this fragile but enduring peace. In 2048 a limited form of insurgency remained in Lebanon, not dissimilar to that seen in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula in 2025. As Kofi Annan once said, “Peace must be more than the absence of war. It must be nurtured, maintained, and built on foundations of justice, equity, and opportunity.”
Peace Between Syria and Israel
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024 marked a seismic shift in the Middle East. Assad’s regime, long synonymous with brutality, corruption, and crimes against humanity, finally collapsed under the weight of internal dissent and external pressures. Russia, preoccupied with its faltering war in Ukraine, and Iran, engaged in direct confrontation with Israel, were unable to sustain the dictator’s grip on power.
Accountability and International Justice: Assad’s atrocities during the Syrian Civil War—including the use of chemical weapons on civilians, mass starvation campaigns in besieged cities, and the torture and murder of thousands in regime prisons—were laid bare to the world in chilling detail. Testimonies from survivors and independent investigations exposed the full scale of his regime’s barbarity, solidifying his reputation as one of the 21st century’s most infamous dictators.
Russia initially offered Assad safe haven, sparking a diplomatic standoff. The International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) played pivotal roles in pursuing justice for Assad’s victims. After years of controversy, both institutions revitalised their mandates, focusing on prosecuting egregious crimes and upholding international law.
Spurious charges against Israeli leaders were discontinued, and South Africa was admonished for its earlier stunt at the ICJ, which had garnered misguided support from countries like Bolivia, Chile, Ireland, and Spain. Meanwhile, Assad and several senior regime officials were handed over for trial, symbolising a renewed global commitment to justice and accountability.
A New Government and Regional Realignment: In Syria, the regime that succeeded Assad in 2025—dominated by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organisation—initially garnered praise from Western liberal circles as a “revolutionary” force. However, its true nature soon became evident. Under HTS, minorities such as Christians, Druze, and Kurds faced brutal persecution, and Syria’s cultural heritage was devastated, with priceless antiquities destroyed.
A generation after Assad’s fall, a coalition of moderate opposition leaders, military defectors, and technocrats emerged, gaining broad-based support from Syria’s fragmented communities. This government renounced territorial claims over the Golan Heights as a confidence-building measure, paving the way for peace talks with Israel.
Economic Transformation and Closure: In the early 2040s, Syria joined the Abraham Accords, signalling a dramatic realignment in regional diplomacy. Israeli agricultural technology transformed Syria into a regional breadbasket, fostering unprecedented economic growth and lifting millions out of poverty. In 2044, a 79-year-old Bashar al-Assad, and his 69-year-old wife Asma al-Assad, were both extradited to Syria where they were executed in what many Syrians identified as a necessary moment of catharsis.
Despite modest advances, Syria continues to face an active insurgency, with the Syrian Arab Armed Forces focused on dismantling remnant Sunni and Shia terror cells. In tandem, the secular rulers of Syria and Jordan have intensified efforts in tandem to counter violent extremism across the ancient region historically known as Transjordan and the broader Levant.
As Ban Ki-moon once observed, “Peace is not merely the absence of war but the presence of sustainable growth, justice, and hope for all people.” Syria’s journey toward peace underscores this wisdom, demonstrating that even amidst decades of division, collaboration and determination can create a brighter future for the Middle East.
Concluding Thoughts: A Century of Survival
History often unfolds in patterns, offering lessons to those with the foresight and courage to act decisively. This thought experiment underscores that the journey to lasting peace and stability, though fraught with challenges, is achievable through resilience, cooperation, and pragmatic solutions. Israel’s “100-Years War for Survival” stands as both a cautionary tale and a testament to the enduring power of determination and innovation, proving that even amidst profound adversity, principles of justice and perseverance can lead to transformative outcomes.
Discussions of pragmatic measures—such as prisoner exchanges with Saudi Arabia or the extradition of dictators to face justice in the nations where they committed atrocities—may provoke discomfort for some. Yet, the brutality witnessed on October 7 and the collective suffering of an entire region for centuries demand bold and effective actions. Such steps, however difficult, reflect the gravity of addressing the unchecked spread of extremism and the need to restore dignity and stability to a region long overshadowed by conflict.
As Lewis Carroll’s Cheshire Cat reminds us, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” Israel’s survival and eventual flourishing owe much to its clarity of purpose, charting a course that rejected both external pressures and internal despair. The global community, too, must forge paths rooted in equity, pragmatism, and a commitment to long-term stability, eschewing performative activism in favour of substantive change.
Niall Ferguson’s insight into the chaos of unfolding events is particularly apt as we reflect on the Middle East’s transformative decades. From Lebanon’s liberation from Hezbollah to Syria’s economic renaissance, these milestones underscore the necessity of deliberate and visionary action. While history’s currents may seem overwhelming in the moment, they are ultimately shaped by those willing to act with purpose and conviction. As Eleanor Roosevelt wisely observed, “It isn’t enough to talk about peace. One must believe in it. And it isn’t enough to believe in it. One must work at it.” These lessons from the past century remind us that history is not merely a record of what was—it is a roadmap for what can be.
Colonel Michael Scott, CSC, is the CEO and Founder of the 2023 Foundation, a charity dedicated to combatting antisemitism and fostering peaceful coexistence.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the positions of the Australian Defence Force or the Commonwealth Government of Australia.
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