An enemy can be tested without being trusted

What are we to make, as at 19 June 2026, of the war between Iran’s odious Islamic regime and the world’s democracies—represented, at this point in time, by the only two countries seemingly willing to do the heavy lifting: the United States and Israel?

Let us take a deep breath and think our way through this. First, a history lesson. This war did not begin in February 2026, nor even with the twelve-day conflict of June 2025, when Israel and the United States struck Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure, nor on 7 October 2023, when Iranian-backed proxies attacked Israel. Its modern origins lie in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when a once-friendly Iran became a revolutionary theocracy hostile to the United States, Israel and the liberal democratic order. If any of us expected this struggle to be over by “next Tuesday”, that problem is not President Trump’s. It is ours.

Second, consider a mathematical principle that may help us “see through smoke” and “look around corners”.

The zero-product principle shows how one failed factor can negate every other strength. Multiply seven numbers together: each is a factor, and the answer is the product. If any factor is zero, the entire product is zero, however large the other six. That would be a fail.

Many factors now matter. The sentiment of feckless allies such as Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and France matters. The calculations of belligerent and execrable states such as Qatar, Turkey and Pakistan matter. The intentions and opportunism of nuclear-armed tyrants—Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping—matter. Business confidence, global oil prices and the November midterm elections matter.