Iran: Is there a plan B?
As Iran gets closer to nuclear weapons capability, the latest Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) webinar featured Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran security and politics expert from the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, who spoke on “Iran: Is there a plan B?”.
Currently, he said, the US is interested in pivoting away from the Middle East, while Iran is escalating tension and wants to make it look as though the US was kicked out of the region.
The US has been favouring indirect diplomacy, he said, talking about strengthening the JCPOA nuclear deal, but taking steps that favour Iran, such as removing the Houthis from the terror list, lessening the US response to Iranian attacks and turning a blind eye to Iran’s oil exports. The exports, largely to China, have allowed the regime to stay afloat financially and thus to refuse to negotiate on the nuclear issue.
He added that the US conduct in showing desperation for a deal since April and not attempting to censure Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is the first step to genuine pressure such as snapping back sanctions, makes Iran comfortable that there is no Plan B.
In fact, he said, Iran is creating crises to test the international community’s resolve, obstructing and even harassing IAEA inspectors. He said, ““The regime is just doubling down on violation after violation, gross action after gross action, because it knows many of these things will come off scot-free and as the regime is doing this, it actually is building out more and more capability.”
The obstruction of the IAEA, he said, has led to a “highly, highly, highly imperfect picture” of Iran’s nuclear program, yet the US and its allies have refrained from bringing censure resolutions to three consecutive quarterly IAEA Board meetings.
He noted that Iran has been escalating its nuclear program, enriching uranium to close to weapons grade, and producing uranium metal, which only has military use, adding, ““the Islamic Republic of Iran has been making irreversible nuclear gains…at the same time that the Administration in Washington continues to talk about a closing window, a closing door, a diminishing runway, ending patience.”
By talking in that manner but acting inconsistently with such concerns, the US incentivises Iran to escalate further, he warned. His main concern, he explained, is that a nuclear-armed Iran would feel enabled to continue its activities designed to destabilise the region and strive for hegemony – “If it does more risk tolerant things now, imagine the sorts of risks the regime will run when it feels it has the safety of a nuclear umbrella…and that is what I fear the most.”
He said if the US does want to resurrect the JCPOA, which he advises against, it should at least also bring diplomatic pressure, censuring Iran at the IAEA, working with allies to snap back the sanctions, and bring about other economic pressure, including cracking down on Iran’s illicit oil exports. The JCPOA should be improved and widened to include Iran’s missile program and other behaviours.
It should also work with other countries in the region to pressure Iran, including expanding the Abraham Accords, and should stand up for Iran’s people against their regime, make sure Israel is free to act in Syria and remain involved in Iraq. All this, he said, is the absolute minimum, and if the US won’t do even that, it will prove it has no Plan B.
If Australia wants to stay out of the nuclear issue, he said, we could crack down on other issues such as Iran’s missiles and drones, designate the entirety of Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation and highlight Iran’s hostage diplomacy.
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