Iran not willing to sacrifice own people
"They are genuine in their pronouncements about Israel – they do want to wipe Israel off the map, unfortunately," says Moore-Gilbert.
Political academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert believes Iran’s policy has always been to “keep their hands clean while allowing others to do their dirty work for them”, which is why she doesn’t see them engaging in a regional war.
Moore-Gilbert addressed a packed room during the NSW Jewish Board of Deputies (JBD) AGM last week, where she provided insight into the thinking of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). During the two years she spent wrongfully incarcerated in Iranian prison, she talked with the IRGC at length about Israel and was exposed to their ideology.
“They are genuine in their pronouncements about Israel – they do want to wipe Israel off the map, unfortunately,” she said.
“But even the IRGC, with their crazy conspiracy theories … they have their own strategic way of looking at the world. It might be twisted and perverse, but it is rational. For that reason I don’t think Iran wants a regional war. I think everything we’ve seen thus far is that they’re willing to push things to the brink, but then step back at the very last moment.”
Moore-Gilbert said it’s a common phrase that Iran is willing to sacrifice every last Arab in its quest to destroy Israel, but is not willing to sacrifice its own soldiers or its own people in any great number.
One of the main reasons for this is because there are still “deep scars” from the Iran-Iraq War, which took place from 1980-1988 and cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of Iranians.
“I watched … Iranian state TV in the years I was there in prison and it’s so common to see dramas, shows, documentaries and constant mentioning of this war,” she said.
“They don’t want to sacrifice their own people – they’re happy to have Arab proxies do the dirty work … but they do not want to get Iranian civilians involved …. That’s something I firmly believe.”
Moore-Gilbert said another factor is that Iran cannot count on the support of their own civilian population. “They know if they go to war with Israel or the US or whoever it may be, their own people aren’t going to back them up.
“They have a small pocket of hard-core supporters, but most estimates [are that] about 80 per cent of the civilian population in Iran does not support the Islamic Republic, and indeed want to get rid of the Islamic Republic.
“This is crucial, because if they went to war they can’t actually expect that most of their own civilian population will enlist – they might even undermine the Islamic Republic from within.”
Moore-Gilbert once again called on the Australia government to proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organisation and sanction Iran wherever possible.
NSW JBD president David Ossip thanked Moore-Gilbert for her insights. “The grace and dignity in which you carry yourself, notwithstanding all the hellish experiences you’ve been through, is really quite remarkable,” he said.
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