A damning indictment

Should Israel Fall

The fall of Israel is not just a possibility entertained by its enemies—it is a scenario that, if realised, would shake the foundations of global stability.

I was deeply moved and quite horrified by a recent speech delivered by Ronald S. Lauder, President of the World Jewish Congress, at the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. Aspects of Lauder’s speech where he referred to the Holocaust and the Pogrom of October 7, 2023, were incredibly powerful and poignant. When he referred to the apparent sentiment of large proportions of our young, it caused me to lose sleep:
“Almost half of young Americans believe that Israel has no right to exist … no right to exist … And they are our future leaders … This is happening in every single country represented here today …”

The fact that this did not dominate front pages across the Western world is a damning indictment—not only of the media but of the leaders who sat silently in the audience, including the King of England, the French President, and Australia’s Foreign Minister. It also shows how far we have fallen in eighty years, while survivors of the Holocaust, as infants or the young, continue to draw breath.

The fall of Israel is not just a possibility entertained by its enemies—it is a scenario that, if realised, would shake the foundations of global stability. The world is dangerously unprepared for what comes next. This article explores the unthinkable: what may happen should Israel fall.
I believe that many of those who loudly profess anti-Israel sentiments—such as the individuals referenced above—have invested little to no serious thought into the matter. In fact, the strength of their convictions seems inversely proportional to the depth of their understanding.

It is my judgment that seven second-order effects would occur.

1 – An Actual Genocide

Forget the ill-informed and the antisemites across Australian universities, chanting slander in our public places, and the many who frequent the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) and other failed legacy media. They have been droning on about Gaza for well over a year. There never was a genocide in Gaza, but there would be in Israel should she fall.
Israel is home to over seven million Jews. Where would they go? Under the current Australian federal government, Jews are not safe in Australia. South Africa under the African National Congress? Hardly a refuge. In France, the Chief Rabbi recently warned of rising antisemitism and even recommended Jews consider leaving. Ireland? The virulent hatred displayed in recent times rules it out.

That leaves the United States, under its 47th President, who in a matter of weeks has shown greater and more consistent support for Israel than at any time since January 2021. But even in America, Jewish students are being assaulted on college campuses, and antisemitism is on the rise. The grim reality is that there is no haven should Israel fall.
Hamas leaders have openly called for genocide. On October 24, 2023, senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad declared, “Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove that country.” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has referred to Israel as a “cancerous tumor” that must be “cut out.”

Also, without Israel, there is no safe place for women and minorities in the Middle East—Christians, Druze, Bahá’í, Circassians, and the LGBTQ+ community would face persecution, exile, or extermination. Israel remains the only refuge in the region where these groups can live with dignity and full rights, something its detractors conveniently ignore.
This is something the scandalously and misleadingly named Jewish Council of Australia and the dolts in the Queers for Palestine movement should reflect upon.

2 – A Crisis of Confidence in the Failed United States Alliance System

The US-Israel military and strategic relationship is one of the strongest in the world. Israel is America’s most reliable ally in the Middle East, providing critical intelligence, technological innovations, and military capabilities. If Israel were to fall, confidence in America’s commitments to its allies would be irreparably damaged.

If Israel falls, it would not be the first time the United States has failed to protect an ally under siege. The rapid fall of South Vietnam in 1975, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and the failure to deter Russia from invading Ukraine despite security assurances all prove one thing: America’s allies cannot afford blind faith in its promises.
Countries like Taiwan, Japan, and Poland would be forced to rethink their reliance on American support. The implications are as dire as they are unpredictable.

3 – A Crisis of Confidence in the Most Productive 0.2% on the Planet

Jews make up just 0.2% of the world’s population, yet their contributions to humanity are immeasurable. In medicine, Jews have pioneered vaccines and lifesaving treatments. In science, they have won Nobel Prizes at a rate exponentially higher than any other group. In commerce, they have shaped global finance and industry.

Israel is not just a refuge for Jews—it is an irreplaceable global hub of innovation. It leads in cyber technology, water desalination, AI, and medical research. A world without Israel would be a world with fewer medical breakthroughs, weaker cybersecurity, and diminished innovation.
Maslow had a few things to say about human requirements. Self-actualisation requires certain prerequisites, such as a reasonable degree of confidence that your children will be safe on the way to and while at school. If the most productive 0.2% of human beings on the planet turn their attention exclusively to survival—and away from the arts, science, commerce, and human betterments—the whole human race suffers.

4 – Loss of Intelligence Sharing on Jihadists

Israel plays an essential role in global counterterrorism. Its intelligence services have foiled countless jihadist attacks worldwide, including in Australia and the UK. Without Israel, Western nations would be blind to many threats.

The types of terrorists who murdered Lee Rigby on the streets of London, or who planned attacks in Sydney and Melbourne, would find it a whole lot easier to operate. The intelligence Israel provides would dry up, leaving the West exposed to increased terrorism.

5 – Opportunism by Rogue Regimes and Elements

Mike Kelly coined the term “rectangle of ratbags” to describe Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Should Israel fall, these regimes could be expected to operate opportunistically and seek to expand their influence.
As Western credibility collapses, rogue regimes will not hesitate to act. Iran will not stop at conventional warfare; the nuclear race in the Middle East will begin in earnest.

Meanwhile, transnational terrorist groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Houthis would be emboldened, creating widespread instability and wrecking global trade. One could expect a return of the Barbary Pirates across the Mediterranean from North Africa much as we are seeing now in the Red Sea, where the Houthis are actively targeting commercial shipping.

6 – Probable Nuclearization and the Risk of Nuclear Miscalculation

Iran would likely seize the moment to become a nuclear power. This would almost certainly trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt seeking nuclear capabilities as a counterbalance.
In Asia, Japan has long debated whether to develop nuclear weapons in response to regional threats. A senior Japanese official recently stated that Japan would need only a matter of months to build a bomb if necessary.
If Israel were to fall, the world would become a much more dangerous place, teetering on the edge of nuclear catastrophe.

7 – Rage Against the Dying of the Light

Let’s rewind a few steps. If any reader believes that the Jewish State will respond with anything less than the full force of a Dylan Thomas poem—more creatively, intelligently, and entirely—then they have not been paying attention. Since October 7, 2023, this fight has been existential—not just for Israel, but for the Jewish Diaspora globally.

Dylan Thomas wrote Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night in 1947 as a defiant ode to his dying father, urging him to resist the inevitable with every fibre of his being. It is a poem about resilience, about refusing to surrender in the face of darkness. Israel today embodies that same spirit—it will not go gentle into that good night. It will rage, fight, and endure, for surrender is not an option, and defeat is unthinkable.

I am not Jewish, yet I see this reality as clearly as the keyboard upon which I type. Israel will fight—and Israel will win. But should it find itself on the brink, there will be, in my judgment, not a single means or munition left untried or unexpended including its nuclear arsenal. History has proven that when Israel’s existence is threatened, it does not capitulate—it prevails. And it will do so again, no matter the cost.

In Aggregate: Another Dark Age?

The fall of Israel would not be an isolated event—it could trigger a broader collapse of global stability, plunging much of the world into chaos reminiscent of the Dark Ages. The assumption that humanity is on an unbroken trajectory of progress is a dangerous delusion.

Civilisation is fragile, and history provides no guarantees of forward momentum. The great empires of antiquity—Rome, Byzantium, and Persia—once seemed indomitable, yet each succumbed to internal decay and external aggression. The notion that the modern West is immune to such decline is wishful thinking at best, suicidal hubris at worst.
Historically, revolutions have a way of consuming their own. The anarchists and radicals now rallying against Israel, convinced of their moral superiority, may soon find themselves among the first casualties of the lawlessness and barbarism they have helped unleash.

The French Revolution devoured Robespierre and its architects; the Bolshevik purges turned on their own initiators. Trotsky, the architect of the Red Army, was hunted down and murdered in exile. Those who stoke the flames of disorder often fail to realise that fire does not discriminate.
Should Western civilisation deteriorate, the ideologues who dream of utopian destruction will confront a bitter truth—one akin to leaping from a plane without a parachute, only grasping their folly moments before impact.
The Jihadists’ Greater Ambition: After the Little Satan, the Big Satan then the rest of us

But does it end there? No.

The jihadists who seek Israel’s annihilation, aided and abetted by complicit antisemites and hard-left zealots in the West, have other designs. In their worldview, Israel is merely the little Satan—a stepping stone toward their greater ambition.

As Ayatollah Khomeini declared in 1979:

“We shall export our revolution throughout the world… until the calls of ‘There is no god but Allah’ resound over the whole world.”
The destruction of Israel, they believe, is only a precursor to the fall of the big Satan—the United States and, by extension, Western civilisation itself. This is not speculation; it is doctrine.

Iran’s regime has been consistent in its rhetoric for over four decades. Since 1979, Iranian leaders—from Khomeini to Khamenei, from Ahmadinejad to Raisi—have openly and consistently called for Israel’s destruction. This is not political posturing; it is an ideological obsession, enshrined in their revolutionary ethos and backed by their actions through proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

And let’s be clear—Israel is not the only target. The crosshairs extend to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and beyond. The secular rulers of Egypt, which sits astride the critical Suez Canal, are also marked for removal in the Islamist vision of a regional caliphate.

Whether people like to admit it or not, our way of life still depends on petrochemicals, and nothing good will happen if the Middle East descends into true chaos and anarchy. The price of oil, global trade, and strategic supply chains all hinge on some level of stability in the region.

If Iran and its terror proxies succeed in toppling Israel, do Western progressives think Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Egypt will be left untouched? Do they truly believe that Europe, already struggling with the consequences of mass migration and energy dependence, would remain insulated from the shockwaves?

And before anyone suggests that the world can simply “transition” to a utopian green energy future during such upheaval, a reality check is in order.

There is no amount of screeching from Greta Thunberg, no furious gaze into a TikTok camera, that will change the fact that modern civilisation still runs on oil, gas, and hard geopolitical realities.

Tip for young players: if you find yourself on the same side of a debate as Greta, you may be doing something wrong.
As the world teeters on the brink, now is not the time for self-indulgent fantasies—it is a time for hard-headed realism.

A Call to Action

History does not wait for the hesitant. This is a moment for clarity, courage, and action. Those who value civilisation must take a stand—before it is too late.

What Are We Teaching Our Young?

That so many educated people across Western nations have been indoctrinated into anti-Israel sentiment is a shameful indictment of our education systems, media, and common sense. Social Marxists—those who have applied Marxist class struggle to cultural and social issues, seeking to dismantle traditional values, national identities, and institutions—appear to have infiltrated academia, media, and political institutions. In doing so, they have subverted truth, replacing it with a radical agenda aimed at eroding Western civilisation from within.

This ideological subversion has produced a generation that mindlessly parrots anti-Israel propaganda without grasping its implications. As Ronald Lauder warns, “Education—serious, honest education—is the only way to correct this, and that won’t be easy. Entire institutions will have to be overhauled and reformed. And that goes for the media as well.” The fight against antisemitism is not just about defending Israel—it is about preserving the principles of truth, reason, and moral clarity that uphold Western civilisation itself.

The Chinese proverb “Kill the chicken to scare the monkey” underscores the necessity of making an example of one wrongdoer to deter others. This principle of deterrence must be applied not only to those who promote antisemitism under the guise of activism but also to those who abdicate leadership and decision-making when decisive action is required. Mark Scott (no relation) should not remain at Sydney University. If he possessed any decency or capacity for self-reflection, he would have already resigned.
Academics who support the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement—an insidious campaign aimed at the economic, cultural, and political isolation of Israel—should not be entrusted with educating our youth. Universities that harbour such individuals must remove them from their positions and strip them of their influence over the next generation. Likewise, Australian union members who spew antisemitic taunts should be expelled without hesitation.

Failure to act decisively against these agents of hatred only emboldens them further. The message must be clear: tolerance of intolerance is not virtue—it is complicity.

But What About the Palestinians?

“But what about the Palestinians?”—this is the reflexive reframe frequently thrown at anyone seriously attempting to discuss Israel with those whose perspectives have been shaped by ‘opinion’ masquerading as journalism, particularly from broadcasters like the ABC. So, let’s talk about the Palestinians. And yes, having lived in Israel and travelled extensively, I have many Palestinian friends. I have seen their reality firsthand, and I refuse to indulge in the naïve, surface-level narratives pushed by Western media and campus activists who have never set foot in the region.

There is a truism: perfection does not exist in nature. In a perfect world, would I like to see the creation of a Palestinian State? Yes, of course. But that is simply impossible and perhaps will be for more than twenty years—if not indefinitely.

Palestinian Authority (PA) terrorism, Hamas’s entrenched influence, and residual capabilities in the West Bank make this abundantly clear. The PA has demonstrated time and again that it is incapable of self-government, plagued by repression, economic mismanagement, and security failures that make statehood a dangerous proposition.

Moreover, the Palestinians have shown no collective desire to live in peace with their Jewish neighbours. Instead of extending a hand in peaceful coexistence, they have chosen to fight, kill, and destroy. Why is this? Because for decades, they have been rewarded for their misbehaviour. Every act of terror, every incitement to violence, every rejection of peace has been met not with consequences, but with rivers of gold—international sympathy, diplomatic indulgence, and massive financial aid, much of which is siphoned off by corrupt leadership.

Every evil action seems to result in another round of Israel-bashing, another UN resolution, another influx of foreign cash. But this game appears to be ending. This decades-long charade has run its course.

Despite the incompetence of John Kerry in the Obama administration—who consistently prioritized Palestinian grievances over broader regional stability—the Abraham Accords shattered the long-held assumption that no Arab state would normalize relations with Israel without first resolving the Palestinian issue. The accords, signed by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, demonstrated that pragmatic Arab nations had grown tired of Palestinian intransigence and their repeated failures to seize historic opportunities. It is my assessment that this growing realization—that the world was moving on—helped trigger the October 7, 2023, pogrom. Hamas understood that the Palestinian cause was slipping into irrelevance and sought to change the narrative through barbaric violence. Tragically, many in the West gobbled up the propaganda like catnip, willingly playing into the hands of those who orchestrated the bloodshed.

Despite receiving billions in international aid, the Palestinian economy remains stagnant, with funds frequently misappropriated by PA officials rather than invested in infrastructure or the well-being of the population. This is not Israel’s doing. Transparency International has consistently ranked the PA as one of the most corrupt governing bodies in the region. Human rights abuses are rampant—journalists, activists, and political opponents are routinely arrested, tortured, or even killed, as seen in the brutal 2021 murder of Nizar Banat, a prominent PA critic beaten to death by security forces. Such authoritarian practices are the hallmark of a failed leadership, not a viable state.

Security is another glaring issue. The PA’s inability to prevent terror attacks, crack down on armed militias, or even control its own territory demonstrates its incompetence. In Jenin and Nablus, PA security forces have all but lost control to Iran-backed terror groups, while Hamas steadily increases its influence in the West Bank. Mahmoud Abbas, now in his 19th year of a four-year term, has clung to power without elections, ensuring that any future Palestinian state would be just another failed dictatorship. Given this reality, calls for an immediate Palestinian state are not just naïve—they are dangerously irresponsible.

We don’t live in a perfect world, and the world can very much live without a Palestinian State.

Or should we say—another Palestinian State? Jordan, on the East Bank of the River Jordan, is home to millions of Palestinians. With approximately 70% of its population being Palestinian, Jordan is, in effect, already a Palestinian state—though ruled by the Hashemite monarchy, a dynasty originating from the Arabian Peninsula. Jordan is not a terror state, but it is a monarchical dictatorship ruled with an iron fist, where the King maintains absolute authority over government, security forces, and political expression. Yet, despite this reality, the world continues to push for the creation of a second Palestinian state, one that, given the current leadership and conditions, would almost certainly become another failed, destabilising entity.

Can the world live without Israel? No. Alongside the United States of America, these two nations are, in my judgment, the world’s only indispensable countries. While neither is perfect—no nation is—they are, at their core, societies built on decency, democracy, and moral clarity. They serve as beacons of light in what could otherwise be an abyss of tyranny and chaos. Any academics or agitators who claim otherwise should be supported in their one-way journey to one of their so-called “fools’ paradises” in the Middle East or any of the totalitarian states currently seeking to dismantle the rules-based global order. Reality, after all, has a way of correcting delusions.

Be Careful What You Wish For

To those who wish for Israel’s downfall, I say this: be careful what you wish for. The consequences would be catastrophic—not just for Israel, but for the world.

A quote I saw in the immediate aftermath of October 7, 2023, was both prescient and painfully accurate: “If you ever stopped to wonder what you would have done if you’d lived in Europe in the 1930s, I have news for you: You’re doing it now.” Too many people, whether through ignorance or malice, are aligning themselves with the same forces of hatred and destruction that history has already condemned.

If you find yourself debating whether my words are too harsh, if you catch yourself dissecting seven different angles before forming an opinion—shame on you. Find a mirror, stare into it, and recognise who the problem is in Western society in 2025. The fact that you can distract yourself with thoughts of whether I am right or simply lacking nuance means you are the problem. You are no different from the hand-wringing enablers of the 1930s—those who rationalised, intellectualised, and excused evil while it gathered strength. Some of them, no doubt, were regretful after the fact. But when it mattered most, they were worse than useless. They were complicit. If you are hesitating in your support for Israel now, you are that person.

Perhaps my concern for the safety and future of my children is no greater than that of the ignoramuses screaming, “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.” But there is one critical difference: for thirty years, as a professional soldier in the Australian Army, I have seen firsthand the fragility of civilisation, the horrors of unchecked violence, and the grim realities of the human condition. I call on my fellow Australians to examine their unconscious biases and acknowledge that the antisemitism festering in our streets and institutions is nothing more than grotesque Jew-hatred cloaked in moral posturing.

This is why, in 2023, I founded The 2023 Foundation—a harm-minimisation charity dedicated to combating antisemitism and fostering peaceful coexistence. We cannot afford to be passive observers of history repeating itself. The future is not predetermined, and history does not have to repeat itself. But that may depend entirely on whether we choose to act now.

I, for one, will not be a bystander.

Colonel Michael Scott CSC is the CEO and Founder of The 2023 Foundation, a charity focused on combating antisemitism and fostering peaceful coexistence. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the positions of the Australian Defence Force or the Commonwealth Government of Australia.

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