The Jewish vote counted
Liberals face challenge reconnecting with voters once seen as a secure part of their base.
The polling booths of Caulfield, Elsternwick, and St Kilda East tell a nuanced story of political realignment within Melbourne’s Jewish community—a story shaped over the course of four federal elections from 2016 through the recent contest in 2025. These neighbourhoods, long considered bastions of conservative-leaning Jewish voters, have progressively transformed into reliable Labor territories, with the Greens also making significant inroads.
In 2016, the electoral map of these suburbs was sharply divided. Caulfield, a historically conservative heartland, gave the Liberal candidate nearly half of its primary votes, securing a comfortable two-party margin of around 55% over Labor. Similar patterns emerged in Caulfield North, which equally favoured the Liberals. Conversely, booths closer to St Kilda East, particularly around Ripponlea and Balaclava, demonstrated a pronounced tilt towards Labor and the Greens. Here, progressive voters drove Labor’s two-party share to nearly 70%, underpinned by a strong flow of Greens preferences. Even then, subtle signals indicated shifting sands beneath the surface—signals that would soon disrupt the Liberal stronghold.
By the 2019 election, with Labor candidate Josh Burns—a figure familiar to and respected by the local Jewish community—replacing the retiring Michael Danby, significant change was already afoot. The Liberals saw noticeable declines in Caulfield East, a swing of over 6% towards Labor. Elsternwick booths swung even further, delivering Labor decisive two-party victories exceeding 54%. Meanwhile, Ripponlea and surrounding booths in St Kilda East reinforced their progressive stance, with Labor’s margins surging to almost 68% in some precincts. This period marked the first clear indication of a broader realignment, suggesting that traditionally conservative Jewish voters were reevaluating their political allegiances, partly influenced by a younger demographic increasingly prioritising progressive values such as climate change and social equality.
The dramatic realignment crystallised in 2022. The Liberal vote collapsed spectacularly across these Jewish-majority suburbs. Caulfield, once unshakably blue, saw Liberal primary support plummet from around 50% to below 40%, overtaken by the combined Labor-Greens vote. Consequently, Labor secured Caulfield’s booth for the first time in recent memory, albeit narrowly, with just under 52%. Nearby, the impact was even more pronounced—St Kilda North delivered an overwhelming Labor victory, with two-party preferences climbing close to 74%. In Elsternwick and Caulfield South, the Liberals fell decisively behind Labor even in primary votes, allowing Labor to comfortably win after preferences. This shift was accompanied by the unprecedented ascent of Greens votes, reaching up to 38% in traditionally moderate or conservative booths. Such changes reflect deeper demographic shifts: younger Jewish voters, many of whom prioritise climate action and progressive social policies, were no longer bound to traditional voting patterns.
Preference flows amplified these trends. Across these elections, Green voters overwhelmingly directed their preferences to Labor, typically at rates of over 80%. Such preference discipline ensured that even modest primary vote gains translated into substantial final margins for Labor, further reinforcing the shift away from the Liberals.
The 2025 election, set against the backdrop of heightened community sensitivity around Antisemitism and feelings of betrayal by the Government in its tepid support for Israel in its war with Hamas, expected to provoke some conservative backlash. Yet, the data suggest minimal shift. Instead, Labor consolidated its hold on these suburbs, capturing around 65% of the two-party-preferred vote in Macnamara overall. While the Liberal primary vote stabilised at less than 30% it remains significantly diminished from its historical highs. In this sense, the vote in Macnamara mirrors the dramatic trend against the Liberal Party in every Australian State. The Greens maintained robust support, hovering around 28%, which may be indicating their newly established foothold among progressive voters remains secure, including among progressive Jewish voters.
If the seat goes to distributing all its preferences, we will see just how strongly the Vote Josh Burns first & Greens Last campaign delivered.
The overall decade-long trend marks a remarkable political evolution within Melbourne’s Jewish community. Previously characterised as a reliably conservative or small-‘l’ liberal demographic, these areas have now seem solidly aligned with Labor, contrary to the Liberal signage littering Balaclava Road. Factors driving this shift include generational turnover, evolving attitudes towards climate change and a broader nation-wide distancing from conservative national politics. Crucially, Labor’s ability to field respected Jewish candidates, notably Josh Burns, has reassured voters whose concerns include both local and global Jewish community issues, neutralising historically decisive policy areas that favoured the Liberals.
The implications of this shift extend beyond mere electoral arithmetic. They signal a broader cultural realignment that is reshaping political strategies and community engagement approaches. Labor should now regard Jewish voters in these suburbs as integral to its inner-Melbourne coalition in its fight to keep The Greens to the margins of Australian politics. Conversely, the Liberal Party faces the considerable challenge of reconnecting with a voter base it previously considered secure.
The political landscape of Caulfield, Elsternwick, and St Kilda East has profoundly changed over just a few electoral cycles. This ongoing realignment highlights the dynamic nature of community identities and political allegiances, demonstrating clearly that, even within traditionally stable voting communities, change can come swiftly and decisively.
Adam Slonim is the presenter of Behind the Headlines radio and podcast.
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