The Return of the Arsenal of Democracy — and Its Allies

In early March 2026, there was a growing chorus suggesting that the United States and Israel are on the brink of “running out of munitions.” It is an arresting claim. It is also, on closer inspection, deeply misleading.

While precise stockpile figures are not publicly disclosed, the available evidence points in the opposite direction: expanding production lines, rising defence budgets, and major defence firms reporting record revenues and multi-year backlogs. This is not the profile of nations approaching exhaustion, but of systems adjusting to sustained demand. Strength lies not merely in what sits in storage, but in the capacity to regenerate.

What we are witnessing is not the exhaustion of Western arsenals, but the collision of peacetime assumptions with the realities of high-intensity warfare.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022—now in its fourth year—exposed uncomfortable truths. Western stockpiles, particularly of anti-tank guided missiles and artillery ammunition, were not configured for prolonged, high-intensity conflict. Thousands of Javelin missiles and vast quantities of artillery rounds were rapidly transferred in the early months to blunt the Russian advance and save the Ukrainian state.

For a time, inventories were drawn down at a rate that appeared difficult to sustain.