The Sum of All Fears
It is my contention that we are living in an antebellum period—a term derived from the Latin "ante bellum," meaning "before the war" and the shadow of impending conflict.

We live in an era that bears an uncanny resemblance to periods of great upheaval in human history. It is my contention that we are living in an antebellum period—a term derived from the Latin “ante bellum,” meaning “before the war”—a phase marked by tension, division, and the shadow of impending conflict. When historians in 150 years reflect on the first quarter of the 21st century, they may observe that the world had already realised two of the four preconditions for a third world war, while the remaining two are partially realised. Rising antisemitism, often a bellwether of societal sickness, is a troubling symptom of the broader malaise afflicting global stability. Drawing upon the insights of Peter Turchin, who argues that cyclical forces drive societies toward conflict, this article explores the geopolitical realities that underscore this unsettling assertion.
Antebellum Defined and Historical Cycles
The antebellum period is characterised by a precarious equilibrium, a time when underlying tensions bubble just beneath the surface. Peter Turchin, a scholar of historical dynamics, posits that societies follow predictable cycles of prosperity, stagnation, and conflict. In his work End Times, Turchin warns that the world is overdue for a major conflagration, driven by overpopulation, resource scarcity, and elite overproduction—a phenomenon where too many competing elites create instability. While the specific quote, “Periods of prosperity sow the seeds of their own downfall,” is a paraphrase, it accurately reflects his theories.
Historical parallels are hard to ignore. The late 19th century saw competing empires and the proliferation of militarism culminating in World War I. Similarly, the early 20th century’s unresolved grievances and the rise of totalitarian regimes set the stage for World War II. Today, the conditions of economic uncertainty, political polarisation, and a multi-polar world order echo these antecedents.
Precondition 1: The Russian Federation and NATO in Ukraine
The first realised precondition is the ongoing conflict between Russia and NATO in Ukraine. This war has its roots in the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, which left Russia grappling with diminished power and influence. Vladimir Putin’s vision of restoring Russia’s great power status has driven aggressive actions, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Ukraine represents a flashpoint for Russia’s confrontation with the West. NATO’s expansion eastward, which Russia perceives as an existential threat, has exacerbated tensions. As Henry Kissinger once noted, “To Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country.” The conflict has escalated to a proxy war, with NATO providing military support to Ukraine and Russia intensifying its campaign.
This poses a profound challenge over values for the West. While the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk maintain cultural and political ties to Russia, abandoning developing nations seeking democracy may be judged poorly by history. Statesmen and diplomats face a delicate balancing act as brinkmanship raises the stakes.
This war is reshaping the global order. Energy markets are disrupted, alliances are tested, and the spectre of nuclear escalation looms large. As Ronald Reagan wisely stated, “Peace is not the absence of conflict; it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means.” Beyond energy and military implications, the human cost is immense, and the potential for broader regional destabilisation remains a significant threat.
Precondition 2: Iran and Its Proxies in the Middle East
The second realised precondition is Iran’s growing aggression, both directly and through its extensive network of proxies across the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) wields significant influence over groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. These proxies serve as extensions of Iranian power, destabilising the region and threatening U.S. interests and allies, particularly Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
Under Ayatollah Khamenei’s leadership, Iran has pursued a strategy of regional hegemony. Its nuclear ambitions and advanced missile programs exacerbate fears of a broader conflict. The quote “Watch your character; it becomes your destiny,” more accurately attributed to Lao Tzu, aptly captures Iran’s trajectory of escalating belligerence.
Adding to this regional complexity is Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions and authoritarian rule have strained NATO and further destabilised the region. His actions—ranging from suppressing internal dissent to projecting influence in Syria and Libya—have compounded existing challenges.
The region’s dynamics are further complicated by the three pillars of violence within Islam: violent Sunni groups that threaten the dynastic monarchy of Saudi Arabia and the secular governance of Egypt, Shia forces led by Iran and Iraq, and the Turkic pillar increasingly shaped by Erdogan’s leadership. These groups not only challenge established regimes but also perpetuate a cycle of sectarian violence—commonly referred to as intrareligious or inter-sectarian violence—when Sunni factions attack Shia communities and vice versa. Turkey’s associations with the Muslim Brotherhood exacerbate these tensions and heighten regional instability.
The violence stemming from political Islam, which has raged for approximately fourteen centuries since its inception in the 7th century, continues to challenge the world’s democracies and threaten international peace and security. The enduring divides and relentless cycles of conflict—whether sectarian, ideological, or geopolitical—raise an unsettling question: can a reformation within Islam akin to a Martin Luther or a Renaissance emerge to modernise and soften political Islam? To paraphrase Colin Gray, it appears we are embarking on “another bloody century,” or perhaps even millennia, with no discernible end to these persistent cycles of violence.
Amidst this turmoil, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has emerged as a pivotal figure. His leadership has introduced significant reforms within the Kingdom, including economic modernisation under the Vision 2030 initiative. Beyond domestic transformation, MBS’s rapprochement with Israel and his efforts to normalise relations between the two nations offer a glimpse of hope for a more stable Middle East. If successful, his initiatives could signal a historic turning point, although these ambitions remain fraught with challenges posed by internal dissent and external threats.
There are perhaps five persons on the planet at any one time who are truly indispensable. In my judgment, Mohammed bin Salman is one of them. His vision and leadership carry profound implications, not only for Saudi Arabia but for the future stability and peace of the Middle East.
Precondition 3: Structural Weaknesses in Western Democracies
One of the most significant yet underappreciated partially realised preconditions threatening global stability is the growing structural weaknesses within Western democracies. These vulnerabilities span economic, demographic, ideological, and cultural domains, each compounding the other:
- Energy Policies and Dependence: Energy policies prioritising ideological goals over pragmatism have left many nations vulnerable to energy crises. Over-reliance on renewable energy sources without adequate backups, compounded by ongoing reliance on Russian gas during the early stages of the Ukraine war, exposed critical weaknesses in European energy strategies. Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz captured this succinctly: “Energy security remains the cornerstone of national security.”
- Demographic Challenges: Declining birth rates across the West, coupled with aging populations, have strained social welfare systems. Margaret Thatcher’s observation, “The problem with socialism is that eventually, you run out of other people’s money,” resonates in this context. Societies failing to reproduce face existential challenges, highlighting the role of family and societal respect for motherhood. While I support reproductive choice, societies that fail to prioritise family structures risk demographic collapse.
- Elite Overproduction: Historian Niall Ferguson’s concept of “elite overproduction” warns of the societal stagnation created by an overabundance of elites pursuing degrees with limited practical application. Disillusionment among graduates unable to secure meaningful roles fuels unrest and dissatisfaction. Governments must reassess how public funds are allocated in tertiary education, prioritising fields that advance societal benefit. Universities promoting anti-Western ideologies must face consequences, including deregistration, with faculty redirected to experience firsthand the societies they idealise.
- Immigration and Integration: Immigration policies in many Western nations have compounded social tensions. Cultural incompatibilities and inadequate integration efforts have fostered unrest in countries such as Sweden, Belgium, and the UK. Critics argue that neo-Marxist ideologies dominating political discourse undermine national identity. Former Senator Jim Webb remarked, “A nation without borders is not a nation,” underscoring the need for cohesive immigration policies. Assimilation—once seen as a necessity—is now dismissed, a trend that must change for societies to thrive.
- A Crisis of Values: Western democracies are increasingly distracted by ideological causes that undermine societal cohesion and strategic focus. Intersectionalism, environmentalism, and the erosion of Judeo-Christian values have diverted attention from existential threats. Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations warns that cultural and ideological divisions can destabilise societies as much as external adversaries. Angela Merkel’s refugee policies and Barack Obama’s international strategies, once lauded, are now critiqued for exacerbating geopolitical and domestic instability. Leading from behind, as Obama famously articulated, is no strategy at all—it is capitulation.
- Our Failed Fourth Estate: The role of the media as the fourth estate has diminished. Legacy media outlets often fail to critique left-of-centre policies with the same rigour applied to others. George Orwell aptly stated, “Journalism is printing what someone else does not want published; everything else is public relations.” This dereliction of duty has eroded public trust, leaving voters ill-equipped to make informed decisions.
In my reading of history, societies do not die of old age; they commit suicide. Western democracies must confront these internal challenges. As Abraham Lincoln warned, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” The internal discord within the West, driven by polarisation and the erosion of shared cultural values, presents vulnerabilities that adversaries will inevitably exploit.
Precondition 4: Chinese Adventurism in the Western Pacific
The fourth precondition, still unrealised, is the growing threat posed by Chinese adventurism in the Western Pacific. Since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in the 1970s, China has risen as a global power. Deng’s pragmatic approach—”It doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice”—enabled economic growth while maintaining totalitarian control. However, under Xi Jinping, China has become increasingly assertive, challenging the post-World War II liberal order.
Xi’s “Chinese Dream,” rooted in the traditional “Middle Kingdom” mindset, envisions China as the global hegemon. Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, aggressive rhetoric towards Taiwan, and military modernisation underscore these ambitions. Japan’s recent declaration that Taiwan’s security is integral to its own survival and its rearmament efforts highlight the stakes.
China faces significant internal challenges, including a declining population projected to shrink dramatically by 2100 and structural economic issues such as an overleveraged property market. These pressures strain the social contract that has underpinned the Communist Party’s rule: economic growth in exchange for political acquiescence. Kevin Rudd and Rush Doshi have extensively analysed Xi Jinping’s leadership, highlighting his adherence to Marxist-Leninist nationalism and a strategic vision aimed at displacing American dominance. Rudd underscores Xi’s ideological framework as one rooted in centralized political control and assertive foreign policy, while Doshi details China’s systematic approach to achieving regional and global hegemony. Both scholars emphasize Xi’s use of nationalism as a powerful tool to consolidate domestic control and advance China’s ambitions.
This author is concerned that Xi may follow the “dictator’s playbook,” exploiting nationalism and manufacturing external conflicts to divert attention from domestic mismanagement by the CCP and his growing unpopularity. Likely targets for scapegoating include India, Japan, or the United States, given their strategic significance and existing tensions with Beijing. In such a scenario, external scapegoating could serve to unite the populace and reinforce the regime’s grip on power, with potentially grave consequences for regional and global stability.
Adding to this volatile mix is North Korea, whose provocations, including missile tests and nuclear threats, serve as a destabilising wildcard. Kim Jong-un’s opportunism heightens regional tensions and could draw major powers into conflict.
A Period of Historical Significance
We are living in a period of historical significance, where the choices we make will determine the trajectory of global stability. As Ronald Reagan warned, “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.” The challenge of the 21st century is to avert global conflict and forge a new paradigm of cooperation and resilience.
We Have Agency
While the challenges ahead are formidable, history has shown that humanity can rise above division to confront shared threats. Albert Einstein’s wisdom, “If I had an hour to solve a problem, I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions,” emphasises the need for thoughtful, deliberate action:
- Elections Have Consequences: In this era of significance, elections appear more consequential than at any other time in my lived history. We must exercise our agency wisely.
- Appeasement Doesn’t Work: History demonstrates that appeasement emboldens aggressors. Choices must carry consequences.
- Maximum Pressure Campaigns: Sanctions should be maintained, strengthened, or imposed against regimes like North Korea, Iran, and Qatar. Turkey’s NATO membership should be reconsidered, with sanctions applied where necessary. Qatar’s ties to Hamas and extremist ideologies must be addressed, including relocating the U.S. airbase to the UAE.
- Peace Through Strength: As the Roman adage states, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” Strong defence postures deter aggression and enable meaningful diplomacy.
- Stick to Our Values: Franklin D. Roosevelt’s assertion, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” reminds us to remain steadfast in our principles despite difficulties.
- F*^k Around and Find Out: In an age where the world’s challenges exceed the ability of the developed world to resolve, it is reasonable and prudent for certain behaviours to be expected of a nation-state or non-state actor(s). Misbehaviour must attract consequences. As the Chinese adage advises, “Kill the chicken to scare the monkey” (sha ji xia hou), clear and decisive actions against transgressors serve as a warning to others, reinforcing the importance of accountability in maintaining global stability.
Conclusion
While the future may seem daunting, history reminds us that even in the darkest times, humanity has risen to meet great challenges. The currents of instability described here—preconditions for what could spiral into The Sum of All Fears—are not inevitable outcomes but warnings. They compel us to act with purpose, resolve, and unity.
As the Founder and CEO of a harm minimisation charity combating antisemitism, I believe that Jews in the diaspora—in partnership with gentiles of right mind—have a pivotal role to play in addressing these preconditions. The Jewish people, guided by a heritage of resilience and a commitment to justice, are uniquely placed to foster dialogue, bridge divides, and inspire solutions. It’s time for our light to shine, illuminating a path forward amid the shadows of uncertainty.
By confronting these challenges collectively and decisively, we can defuse the tensions that threaten to consume us and lay the foundations for a brighter, more stable future. This is not a task for one group or nation but a shared responsibility for all who value peace and the preservation of civilisation.
Colonel Michael Scott, CSC, is the CEO and Founder of the 2023 Foundation, a charity dedicated to combatting antisemitism and fostering peaceful coexistence.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the positions of the Australian Defence Force or the Commonwealth Government of Australia.
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