Middle East reality check

Why Israel needs to forget about the Messiah

I am concerned by the palpable optimism surrounding Trump's victory.

From left: Bahrain Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then-US president Donald Trump and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan sign the Abraham Accords at the White House in September, 2020. Photo: AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File
From left: Bahrain Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then-US president Donald Trump and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan sign the Abraham Accords at the White House in September, 2020. Photo: AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File

Donald Trump’s recent election as president of the United States has been warmly welcomed by many of Israel’s supporters. They hope the 47th president will be the decisive backer Israel needs to definitively turn the strategic tables in its favour.

Perhaps he will be. He certainly impressed many during his first term as president: moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, championing the Abraham Accords, ending US support for UNRWA and so on. However, I am concerned by the palpable optimism surrounding Trump’s victory.

Now, that’s not to deny he may do some great things for Israel. I am troubled by the broader mindset that there is a magic bullet – be that Trump or anything else – that will radically transform Israel’s security position.

We consistently see this kind of wishful thinking. Start with the current Gaza War. We were told a decisive victory required the IDF to take control of Rafah. Israel succeeded in doing so yet the battle has continued. We all believed the key was eliminating Yahya Sinwar. Israel did that too and the conflict continued.

The same goes for Hezbollah. The IDF eliminated Hassan Nasrallah and his fellow leaders. The IAF has reportedly also destroyed most of the Shiite terrorist group’s stocks of precision missiles. Yet the fight in the north continues.

There are numerous additional magic bullets that capture our imagination. We believe dismantling UNRWA – a worthy goal – will help curtail Palestinian terrorism and transform the Palestinians into, finally, a responsible partner for peace.

We believe the much-hyped Iron Beam, a land-based, high-energy laser that is being developed to eliminate aerial threats, will finally render Israel impenetrable to rockets, missiles and drones fired by its enemies.

We believe continuing to brutalise Hezbollah might eventually shift the balance of power in Lebanon. The hope being that could induce other Lebanese factions to reassert themselves and return Beirut to its status as “the Paris of the Middle East”.

We also believe a decisive strike on Iran will radically reshape Israel’s strategic fortunes. Destroying the mullah’s nuclear program and overthrowing their theocracy will rekindle peaceful relations between the previously friendly peoples of Israel and Iran.

We believe negotiating a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia – kind of like an Abraham Accords on steroids – will unlock a new era of peace between Sunni Arabs and Jews – an era that will be driven by rational self-interest and material advancement.

Achieving any or all those goals would unquestionably be positive for Israel’s security. Just like the next Trump presidency may be a net positive for Israel. And they should each be pursued with enthusiasm and determination.

However, we need to come to terms with the fact none of these developments will ever, in the minds of many, render Israel a roundly welcome and accepted feature of the Middle East.

There may be pockets of acceptance. The UAE seems to be one such instance. Yet the region – both its populations and regimes – will likely forever remain overwhelmingly hostile to Israel and the Jews more broadly.

Relatively recent polls seem to support this conclusion. For example, a poll conducted by the Arab Centre Washington after October 7, 2023, found that 89 per cent of respondents across 16 Arab countries opposed normalising ties with Israel.

The conclusion seems brutally clear: Israel and the Jews are not welcome or wanted in the Middle East. They never have been and most likely never will be – certainly not as a free and independent people, anyway.

Whether that stems from doctrinal aspects of Islam, the incessant antisemitic poisoning of the masses by generations of Islamist leaders or the scapegoating of Jews by governments to distract from their own failings, those attitudes are entrenched.

Israel and the Jewish people need to internalise that reality. We need to remain forever vigilant. We need to seek tactical and strategic victories where we can. However, we need to forsake the illusion we are just one win away from transforming the Middle East.

As Dan Schueftan, the chairman of the National Security Studies Centre at the University of Haifa once said: If you like solutions, do crossword puzzles.

Jason Rose is a Jewish dad living in Melbourne.

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