Why voting Liberal could result in a Greens win

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This election is the most important election that our community has faced in Australia’s history.

The vast majority of Jews say they are disappointed with the lack of leadership in the face of increasing antisemitism and shifting government policies on Israel under the Labor Government. Many traditional Labor and progressive Jews are for the first time changing their votes in support of the Liberal Party. This is understandable. But in the seat of Macnamara, taking votes away from the Labor candidate, Josh Burns, will have an unintended consequence. To vote for the Liberals in Macnamara will be a vote for the Greens. Why?

The answer lies in our compulsory preferential voting system in federal elections. Unlike the UK or the US, in Australia you must give second, third, fourth, et cetera choices or preferences in the event your candidate does not get a majority of the first preference vote. After the votes of all the parties and independents have been cast, then the preferences of each candidate are distributed until one has a majority, typically leading to a contest between two leading candidates.

So for example if five candidates are standing then the preferences are distributed in the following cascading order:

1. The candidate with the least number of votes have their preferences distributed first, then
2. The candidate to with the second fewest votes have their preferences distributed next
3. This goes on until the candidate with the third highest vote distributes their preferences last.
4. The two candidates that are left at the top of the list never have their preferences distributed. Whichever of those top two candidates receives more than 50 per cent of the vote after preferences are distributed will win the seat.

How does this relate to the seat of Macnamara and why should we as a community care?

Over the last 100 years the seat of Macnamara and its predecessors has never been won by the Liberals. It is a progressive seat which over the last 20 years has gone from a safe Labor seat to a marginal seat. Michael Danby, the former Labor member when the electorate was known as Melbourne Ports, saw his large majority be whittled away by the Greens. The Greens now are a real threat to win this seat in the upcoming election.

The Liberals are likely to be one of the two remaining parties in this seat before third place preferences are cast. So even if you vote for the Liberals and preference Josh Burns before the Greens, your preference will never be counted. By shifting your vote to the Liberals, you would have let Josh Burns slip into third position after the Greens. Josh will lose and the Greens will win the seat.

In 2022 in Macnamara, the Liberals received 29 per cent of the vote, Josh Burns received 31.8 per cent and the Greens 29.6 per cent. After all preferences were distributed from the minor parties, Josh Burns beat the Greens into second place by only 300 votes.

As reported in the Murdoch press last week, if an election were held now in Macnamara, the Liberals would get 37.6 per cent, the Green 27.9 per cent and Labor 25.9 per cent. This is a drop of six per cent in Josh Burns’s primary vote from the last election. Jews are 13 per cent of the Macnamara electorate and the shift in the Jewish vote is currently the major reason why Josh Burns’ primary vote has fallen. On these numbers, Josh will lose his seat, but not to the Liberals.

If Josh does run third, what happens when his preferences are distributed? It is an option for members of the Jewish community to vote for Josh Burns and preference the Liberals. But that will not be enough to get the Liberals over the line. The traditional Labor voters will preference the Greens over the Liberal party. The progressive base of the electorate does not view the Greens in the same way as the Jewish community.

So if Josh Burns runs third, the Greens will be elected.

Jews who vote Liberal in Macnamara should understand the unintended consequence of that decision. They may be well intentioned to give the Labor Party a message of protest and hope for a Liberal win. Some Jews may feel that they could never vote for the Labor Party, but a vote for the Liberal party in Macnamara is “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

Simply put, if you vote Liberal in Macnamara, you are ensuring the Greens will win the seat.

Bruce Solomon is an Australian businessman. He is aligned with the Labor Party.