An enemy can be tested without being trusted

What are we to make, as at 19 June 2026, of the war between Iran’s odious Islamic regime and the world’s democracies—represented, at this point in time, by the only two countries seemingly willing to do the heavy lifting: the United States and Israel?

Let us take a deep breath and think our way through this. First, a history lesson. This war did not begin in February 2026, nor even with the twelve-day conflict of June 2025, when Israel and the United States struck Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure, nor on 7 October 2023, when Iranian-backed proxies attacked Israel. Its modern origins lie in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when a once-friendly Iran became a revolutionary theocracy hostile to the United States, Israel and the liberal democratic order. If any of us expected this struggle to be over by “next Tuesday”, that problem is not President Trump’s. It is ours.

Second, consider a mathematical principle that may help us “see through smoke” and “look around corners”.

The zero-product principle shows how one failed factor can negate every other strength. Multiply seven numbers together: each is a factor, and the answer is the product. If any factor is zero, the entire product is zero, however large the other six. That would be a fail.

Many factors now matter. The sentiment of feckless allies such as Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and France matters. The calculations of belligerent and execrable states such as Qatar, Turkey and Pakistan matter. The intentions and opportunism of nuclear-armed tyrants—Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping—matter. Business confidence, global oil prices and the November midterm elections matter.

On 17 June, the United States and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, mediated by Pakistan. It provides for a cessation of military operations and a 60-day period to pursue a broader agreement.

What comes next? We do not know.

The Ayatollahs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been given some rope. I have no confidence they will use it to pull Iran towards peace. I expect that, in time, they will hang themselves with it.

That does not make the pause a mistake. An enemy can be tested without being trusted. Time allows other factors to be weighed, magazines replenished, forces repositioned, intelligence gathered and the next joint prioritised effects—or kill—list prepared, from Priority One through to “n”.

I may be criticised for saying this plainly, as it is not a widely shared perspective: there is no American president in whom I have greater confidence to get this right than the incumbent 47th President. But let us not pile on for now. Everyone take a breath. We can circle back to this in twenty years.

The shooting is not over. There will be more heavy lifting, including lethal force and other effects. Yet every available capability need not be expended today if the unintended consequences and adverse second- and third-order effects are prohibitive.

If you think Mayor Zohran Mamdani is bad, imagine President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2028. Heaven help us.

Things could be better. They could also be worse. Consider an alternate future: Kamala Harris elected president in November 2024; the Islamic Republic emerging nuclear-armed and equipped up to the wazoo with missiles, drones, attack boats and proxies; and Israel facing an administration constrained by its radical anti-Israel wing.

Had Israel acted against Iran without American support, would a Harris administration have vetoed a hostile Security Council resolution? Abstained? Or joined the condemnation to appease the Squad and its activist base?

Israel would have invoked Article 51 of the United Nations Charter and its inherent right of self-defence. Washington’s response could not have been assumed. It is speculation, certainly, but a worthwhile thought experiment.

The midterm elections matter. American domestic sentiment matters. Economic conditions matter. So do urgencies invisible to those outside the secure rooms where intelligence is assessed, priorities weighed and decisions made.

My reading of the memorandum is straightforward. Expectations have been placed upon Iran. If—or when—the regime fails to meet them, lethal force will resume.

It remains my assessment that the Islamic Republic is entering its final years. The next five may be bumpy, but within twenty years I expect to fly between Sydney and Tel Aviv and stop over in Tehran—as travellers commonly did before 1979.

Until then, we must not confuse Iran with the Islamic Republic. I have had the good fortune to know members of Australia’s Iranian diaspora. They are fine Australians: hardworking, generous, patriotic and painfully conscious of what was stolen from their ancestral homeland.

They are sons and daughters of the Lion and the Sun. They despise Tehran’s butchers and IRGC thugs. I hate that monsters continue to brutalise their families and loved ones. The time will come for the Iranian people to rise against their oppressors.

Keep heart. Keep the faith. At this grave hour, Winston Churchill’s example still points the way:

Keep calm. We keep buggering on.

Colonel Michael Scott CSC Ret’d is a former Australian army officer and the founder of The 2023 Foundation, an initiative dedicated to combating antisemitism.