Conspiracy theory on Iran protests ‘laughable’
The conspiracy theory claiming that Israel is organising demonstrations against the ruling regime in Iran is "laughable".
THE conspiracy theory claiming that Israel is organising demonstrations against the ruling regime in Iran is “laughable”.
Israel isn’t orchestrating them – and it is actually unclear whether they are good, or potentially disastrous, for Jerusalem.
After Tehran accused Israel of pulling the strings, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke his silence on the protests.
“I heard today Iran’s President Rohani’s claim that Israel is behind the protests in Iran,” Netanyahu said in a video on Monday. “It’s not only false. It’s laughable.”
He lauded the “brave Iranians” who seek “freedom” and “justice”, and said: “When this regime finally falls, and one day it will, Iranians and Israelis will be great friends once again.”
The Tehran regime is often described as the Jewish state’s number one foe, as it not only issues threats against Israel, but also funds Hezbollah, the Syrian regime and other aggressive forces.
Jerusalem’s joy that Tehran is now deep in crisis is predictable.
But some analysts believe that while glee may be justified on the part of Jerusalem, it may not be smart.
Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born Israeli academic who lectures at Herzliya’s Interdisciplinary Centre and edits a geopolitics journal, told The AJN that the protests, while mainly domestic in focus, do impact on issues that are important to Israel.
“They show that the anger is rising, with the regime not providing enough economic services and benefits,” said Javedanfar.
“Protesters are concerned about corruption and injustice and they want this to be the priority, rather than support for Hezbollah or Bashar al-Assad in Syria, who people hold in contempt for using chemical weapons against his own people.”
The protesters taking to the streets across Iran want the funding that their government pours into Syria and Hezbollah to be reduced, and for Israel this sounds attractive.
The weakening of these two forces sounds good.
But Javedanfar said that the chance of the regime actually responding to the protests by transferring less money is very low – and believes that the regime could actually respond to the protests by defiantly increasing funding.
“We’re very far from a revolution,” he said, adding that the regime could give more money to Syria and more money to Hezbollah as “its way of saying it won’t be bullied by protesters”. This is “an option that we should be worried about”.
Israel dreads the idea of the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis getting even stronger.
Javedanfar thinks that Netanyahu was wrong to praise the Iranian opposition, as an embrace from Israel can prove a poisoned chalice in Iran and the Arab world, undermining credibility and strengthening conspiracy theories about Israel orchestrating protests.
“We should not say we’re standing with the regime, because when you interfere it can weaken the opposition,” Javedanfar said.
“I think Netanyahu should have just stuck to criticising the regime and not say that we stand with the opposition.”
There are suggestions in political circles that Netanyahu’s statement on the Iranian protests had less to do with where Israel’s interests lie, and more to do with pleasing the Americans.
It has just emerged that Israel and America have reached a joint strategic work plan to counter Iranian activity in the Middle East, and it’s possible that in this context Israel is expected to echo the US President.
Donald Trump is delighted to see people “finally acting against the brutal and corrupt Iranian regime”.
And Trump sees support for them as a way of differentiating himself from his predecessor.
“All of the money that President Obama so foolishly gave them went into terrorism and into their pockets,” he tweeted. “The people have little food, big inflation and no human rights. The US is watching!”
Last month Trump gave Netanyahu one of the biggest gifts he bestowed on any foreign leader, namely America’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Netanyahu’s latest statement may say little about what he thinks these protests actually mean to Israel, and more about falling in line with Trump.
He could well be expected to echo Trump because of wide-ranging US–Israeli agreements, because the US President expects payback for his big gift of Jerusalem recognition, or a combination of the two.
NATHAN JEFFAY
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