Israel preparing for its next battle fronts

With the return to Israel of the living hostages from the hell of Gaza’s captivity and a fragile ceasefire in place, many have breathed a sigh of relief.  However, such respite may be short lived, according to Israeli-American journalist and analyst Maayan Hoffman who in an interview with the AJN contends that Israel is preparing for the next round of conflict on multiple fronts.

Hoffman is the executive editor and strategist for ILTV News and is currently in Australia.  She was the former news editor and deputy CEO of strategy and innovation for The Jerusalem Post and a former editor-in-chief of the Baltimore Jewish Times.

Speaking to the AJN, Hoffman believes that to fulfil US President Donald Trump’s 20 point peace plan for Gaza which requires the disarming of Hamas, Israel will need to finish the job.

“I think that everybody knows that we didn’t really finish in Gaza. Israel has 53 per cent of the Strip under its military control, and 47 per cent is under Hamas control. But most of the Gazans, the vast majority, are living under Hamas.”

She highlights that currently no international force is willing to disarm Hamas under Trump’s plan.

“We’re not going to get there because nobody wants to fight Hamas, and Hamas is effectively still in power. It’s reconstituting itself. We know that they’ve recruited thousands of new terrorists just in the last couple of months, and that we’re seeing them start to strengthen, and carry out some attacks over the yellow line against Israeli soldiers. There’s intelligence saying that they’re trying to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

“And so the question is, how are we going to move to stage two [of Trump’s plan]? And what most of the expert analysts are saying is that the reality on the ground is that at some point Trump is going to have to realise that we can’t bring an international force… if Hamas is in power – Indonesia says ‘We’ll go in, but we want to deal with humanitarian aid. We don’t want to fight Hamas’.” Similarly, the UAE and Saudi Arabia do not want to disarm Hamas.

“Ultimately, Israel will probably have to complete the job. When specifically, that happens, it’s hard to say.  Some of the IDF experts that I’ve been speaking to recently are talking about a one to two month window that we’re going to need in order to complete the job.”

She notes that while many are sceptical when Israel says one to two months, she believes this time it is different because the hostages are no longer in Gaza.

“There were certain areas of Gaza we really couldn’t operate in fully – because of the hostages being there, and the threat that either we, God forbid, would kill them, or Hamas would kill them, knowing we’re coming closer. Now that the living hostages are home, there is an opportunity for us to really finish up, and at that point, then we could potentially move to stage two [of Trump’s plan].”

Given that most of Hamas’s leadership and infrastructure has been destroyed, when asked how this operation would succeed in ending Hamas rule, Hoffman argues, “You’re not going to see mass differences in the tactics that are being used, but you will see a more targeted and direct defence on very specific areas. And the goal is not to annihilate Hamas as an idea – that’s not possible. The goal is not necessarily to kill every member of Hamas – that’s not possible. The goal is to take them out of rule so that people understand that Hamas is no longer effectively running the Gaza Strip.

“And then what you’ll be able to do is to hopefully move that peace forward … this technocratic government [under Trump’s plan] that might rule different areas of Gaza, brought together by the Gazan people and Gaza leaders, and that will hopefully allow us to begin transitioning.  It will take decades, but hopefully re-educating the youth and the people in Gaza for peace, as opposed to terror, could become a reality”

Discussing Israel’s recent skirmishes on the border with Lebanon, including the targeting of Hezbollah, Hoffman described the ceasefire that had been in effect for around a year as a “fake ceasefire”, as it was under the premise that Hezbollah would disarm which it never agreed to do.

“Lebanon, meaning the government would like to see Hezbollah disarm, but the Lebanese Government and military are too weak to see that happen. Plus, there are members of the Lebanese military force that are Shia, that are supportive of Hezbollah, they’re even less likely to help effectively disarm Hezbollah. We gave them a chance. We started to see in the very beginning, there were weapons being taken and collected from some Palestinian terrorist organisations, but not much has been accomplished.”

Hoffman believes Hezbollah is currently weak following Israeli attacks, but that Iran is trying to fund and rearm Hezbollah.

“I think the biggest question mark…  is how are we going to disarm Hezbollah when Israeli airstrikes are not going to do that. So then, what is the solution?… Unfortunately … I don’t think we necessarily have an answer yet,” she said.

The UN’s Resolution 1701 (2006) was meant to disarm Hezbollah, but that was never carried out. Asked if there is an opportunity to push for the implementation of that resolution or for international action, Hoffman is pessimistic given no action for the last decade. “The biggest question that you have to ask… is the role of Iran, and will the international community stop Iran from funding and funnelling weapons? And until that happens, I don’t think you’re going to disarm Hezbollah.”

Thousands of Israelis who were evacuated from the north have still not returned home, which Hoffman believes has reinforced the need to secure Israel’s border with Lebanon.

As to whether Iran is preparing for another battle against Israel, Hoffman said “100 per cent”, adding “Israel is also preparing for the next round of conflict,” believing another round of conflict could be in the next year.

“Netanyahu actually increased the defence budget by hundreds of billions of shekels… We’ve also been increasing the manufacturing of our air defences, knowing that we’re likely going to be attacked again.  The laser system is supposed to be ready by the end of the month.

“You saw that in the last war, we lost 28 people, 27 of them civilians, which is a huge amount of civilian casualties. These ballistic missile heads were massive, and we didn’t have the means to necessarily stop all of them.”

“There’s no question that Iran is going to be trying to target Israel again, but there also is no question that Israel is preparing, not only to defend but likely to take an offensive stance like it did this last time,” she said.

As to whether she believes Iran is still capable of developing nuclear weapons following the US-Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities, Hoffman said, “Certainly a lot of the nuclear facilities have been destroyed. But I think there’s still a very big question mark about what percentage? And also, there’s some missing enriched uranium, and we still don’t know where it is… Do they still have that? Are they going to be able to move their program and reconstitute it quicker than we would like? I think, right now, the number one concern is the ballistic missiles, but the nuclear threat has not gone away.”

Qatar has also played a significant role in these geo-political dynamics, both negotiating with Hamas, whose leaders live in Qatar, while having a US army base. Asked whether the US’s recent decision to ban the Muslim Brotherhood could impact its friendship with Qatar which supports the Muslim Brotherhood, Hoffman said, “There is a strong friendship between Qatar and America, and certainly between Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and some of the others who are close within his cabinet. On the other hand, I think that there is some pressure being placed behind the scenes on Qatar… I had a meeting with [US] Ambassador Mike Huckabee in Israel not so long ago… As an American, I have real concerns about how in bed America appears to be with Qatar.

“Qatar, we know, has been infiltrating our American college campuses and many, many other areas of American society through its money. [It has] 300,000 people but is one of the richest countries in the world and has really used its money to influence and we saw the results of that on the college campuses, with the protests against Israel, the pro-Palestinian protests that we saw take place… It’s very concerning.”

Hoffman said that Huckabee seemed to imply that behind the scenes pressure is being placed on Qatar, “He didn’t go into details, and it’s hard to say, but I did hear from some sources, there is consideration of potentially moving the American base… from Qatar, and that’s a threat that’s being used against Qatar….  if those kind of statements are being made behind the scenes, then hopefully Qatar will be a more fair player.”

Discussing the role of Qatar in Israeli politics particularly ‘Qatar-Gate’ where senior Israeli advisors were accused of being influenced by Qatar, Hoffman remarked, “I think Qatar, like it did in the US, has certainly infiltrated other Western countries and Israel is no different.”

In February this year, Israel’s Shin Bet announced that it had opened an investigation into suspicions of ties between senior officials in the Prime Minister’s Office and Qatar. In March, Israel Police’s Lahav 433 Unit of International Crime Investigations arrested two suspects in connection to the case, later revealed to be Yonatan Urich and Eli Feldstein, while Israeli businessman Gil Birger admits in recordings published by KAN’s Reshet Bet that he transferred funds from a Qatari lobbyist to Eli Feldstein.

In March the Rishon Lezion Magistrate’s Court, at the request of the Israel Police’s Unit of International Crime Investigations, issued a gag order on all information related to the investigation.

“My assumption is that Qatar has infiltrated the upper echelon of our government …  Eventually truth rises to the top… we will find that Qatar played a strategic role in helping convince core players that Hamas was unlikely to attack or could not attack at the scale it did.  Our leadership knew Hamas was planning these things, but didn’t believe it would or could carry it out to the extent that they did,” Hoffman said.

There is a strong desire within Israel for an independent commission of inquiry into October 7, but it has been blocked in favour of a government led inquiry.  Discussing the importance of an independent enquiry, Hoffman said, “If you don’t do some kind of true national Inquiry, how do you ever ensure that another October 7 doesn’t happen?

She added that there is a challenge because the country is divided. A government-led inquiry will not be trusted by one side and a judiciary-led inquiry will not be trusted by the other.

Hoffman believes that two things were needed for Israelis to heal post October 7 – one was the return of the hostages, and now one deceased hostage remains; and the other was for an independent inquiry to feel secure in their country. Hoffman shared, “I really hope that the inquiry does happen, but right now it’s still stuck.”

Israeli elections are scheduled for October 2026 but are likely to be called earlier.  Hoffman predicts many voters will return to the centre-right and that extreme right politicians will be ousted.

But whether or not an independent inquiry is established will likely have a significant impact on which parties can come together to form coalitions, and whether Israelis feel safer or more vulnerable, will also likely play a key role in how Israelis vote.