Kylie Moore-Gilbert on Iran’s future

Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert believes Iran’s regime will likely reconstitute itself rather than transform into the liberal democracy most Iranians hope for, warning, “It’s going to get very messy and it’s not going to get resolved quickly.”

Moore-Gilbert, who spent 804 days wrongfully detained in Tehran’s notorious Evin and Gharchak prisons, told The AJN she believes US President Donald Trump may have to make a deal with the remnants of the regime.

“What I hope will happen is that the regime somehow overnight in Iran transforms into a thriving liberal democracy. I think that’s what most Iranian people want, but I don’t think that’s a realistic scenario,” Moore-Gilbert said.

“I can imagine that they will make some accommodation with the remnants of the regime. Most likely it will reconstitute itself in some form, a much less threatening form internationally, but the bad guys still have all the guns and I think that will sow the seeds for further uprisings and further protests down the track if that happens.

Moore-Gilbert described feeling “shell shocked” watching events unfold at unprecedented speed.

“I’m feeling quite shell shocked by the speed of events. The fact that Khamenei is no more, the fact that, so many other senior figures have been taken out, that Trump seems to be going for regime change. While it was expected he’d do some kind of strike, I think most people felt it would be more limited in scope than what it’s become,” she said.

“You’ve got whiplash just watching everything that’s happening. The fact that the Gulf States have been targeted, drawn in and might actually enter the war potentially. It’s a full blown regional war at this point and it’s exhilarating, but also quite shocking, to watch.”

Moore-Gilbert said she has been unable to contact friends inside Iran due to internet shutdowns.

“I have been trying to contact my friends in Iran, but the internet’s been shut down. Social media is largely not really functioning inside Iran, unless you are a regime official – they seem to be tweeting and giving media interviews without any obstruction, but everyone else is struggling to get online. So I’ve reached out to some of my friends in Iran, but none of them have been able to get word out,” she said.

“I think it’s quite a fraught situation.”