Many balls in play in the Middle East

hat a wonderful difference to be in Israel after the release of the living hostages and with the ongoing repatriation of those deceased nearing completion.

US President Donald Trump is being hailed as a hero and deserving of multiple Nobel Peace prizes.

There is widespread acceptance of the overall American 20 point peace plan by Israelis, whilst at the same time, very deep scepticism that it is actually deliverable. Not a single Israeli I met thought that this was more than a pause, even if an extended one. But a most welcome pause at that.

On the one hand, only the Arab/Muslim world is capable of bringing the Palestinians to any compromise and this is Trump’s strength – his strong relationship with them. On the other, the promotion of Turkey and Qatar to central roles is a major threat to Israel, philosophically and materially.

More quickly than Israel seems to be able to keep pace with, old understandings are now fluid, many balls are in play and every situation can develop in multiple ways. For example: Egypt has a huge build-up of military forces that goes way beyond the peace agreement; Israel’s military edge is now a grey area with Saudi Arabia, for instance, to get the most sophisticated US planes; Syria’s al-Sharaa, strongly backed by Turkey, has been welcomed in the White House; a real war still rages with Hezbollah in Lebanon; and Iran is threatening to attack Israel again. All this against the background of the Saudi visit last week to the White House and the American sponsored United Nations resolution that passed the Security Council.

In Israel, Jerusalem in particular, it is near impossible to get around the road closures as a continuing parade of high ranking US officials come and go. The Israeli media call this “Bibisitting” – both a play on a 2015 Likud commercial and currently, an array of Trump representatives ensuring that Prime Minister Netanyahu sticks to the Trump Plan and that Israel will not be the party responsible for its breakdown.

After Trump made Israel apologise for the failed attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, he promised Israel would not do so again. The presence of American administration figures, as well as senior US military officers, with 200 of them based in Kiryat Gat, but also in situation rooms around the country, aim to ensure that Trump’s promises on Israel’s behalf, especially as they pertain to Gaza, are monitored and kept.

What is interesting in its own way, is that it may even be what Netanyahu desires, but cannot say, for internal coalition reasons. It may also suit him to have it imposed as it were, by Trump. Netanyahu’s popularity is such that if an election were held today, it is just as possible that he gets re-elected as not. He remains the single most popular politician in opinion polls. The political opposition remains divided against itself, with no clear leader to coalesce around and Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu, a major factor for and against.

There is no doubt that Trump’s friendship and his very positive and well appreciated actions, come with a big bear hug and that this is the most overt and strongest takeover of Israeli independent policy making in my lifetime. This is what happens when you have a series of Israeli government policy vacuums and a very friendly but paternalistic relationship with a superpower that believes in “father knows best”.

Trump’s letter to President Isaac Herzog seeking a pardon for Netanyahu is another first, crossing a line on internal matters that has never been crossed before.

Why? That depends on which camp – the pro- or anti-Netanyahu – one sits in. Trump has genuine regard for Netanyahu, but also believes they know how to work together, or how far they can push each other. Trump is transactional and not ideological. He is a deal maker.

For some in his administration, like ambassador Mike Huckabee, Secretary of State Marco Rubio et al, they are ideologically in sync with those who understand that Judea/Samaria/West Bank are the heart of the Jewish homeland, biblically and historically. But Trump, without denying such claims, has used annexation, or rather stopping Israeli annexation, as one of his main negotiation carrots with Arab/Muslim countries.

Trump was and remains a two stater to one degree or another. Not opposed to some partial Israeli annexation perhaps, but keeping a window open for some sort of Palestinian entity on the horizon. It is all about the deal.

Ideological or not, with the practicalities of keeping not only Israel, but also the Arab/Muslim states on board, Trump has ensured that there is now renewed focus by Rubio on alleged settler violence. The US, Qatar, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey jointly issued a statement of support for a United States UNSC resolution that included an offer towards “a pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood”. Again, something the Israeli government found hard to deal with due to the usual internal coalition constraints, which has now escalated to the US taking this forward without Israeli agreement, concerned that not doing so may affect the Gaza plan.

The Gaza plan itself is evolving with numerous creative ideas emerging to deal with the facts on the ground. Talk at the moment is that there may be a portion of Gaza controlled by Israel, another by the still-to-be-formed international force and the third, an area possibly controlled by Hamas. No Arab force seems to want to fight Hamas, and Trump does not want Israel to do it for fear of the deal collapsing. The creative part is that reconstruction may only happen in the two areas not controlled by Hamas, with the hope that the Gazans will get rid of Hamas themselves in order to benefit from reconstruction.

Whether this comes to ultimately be the plan or not, it shows continuing American engagement and focus on Gaza, which is a big positive for Israel. The whole situation, with some serious loss of Israeli independent policy making, whilst at the same time, Israel being in a stronger place militarily and security-wise than possibly ever before, always remembering this was achieved with great Israeli sacrifice, puts us in unfamiliar territory.

But for now, the atmosphere in Israel is positive, hopeful and optimistic.

Dr Ron Weiser AM is a life member of the Zionist Federation of Australia Executive and a life governor of the Zionist Council of NSW.