No clear path for either bloc to form government
In two recent polls, Netanyahu's right-wing Likud was the largest party, with Kan giving it 31 seats and Channel 12 putting it at 30. Both networks predicted Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid would win 25 seats.
TWO weeks before Israelis cast their votes, a pair of television polls released on Tuesday forecast renewed gridlock after the November 1 elections, with opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-religious bloc falling just short of a majority and Prime Minister Yair Lapid lacking a clear path to form a government. The polls also showed the far-right Religious Zionism party gradually rising, largely at the expense of Likud, and set to become Israel’s third-largest party.
A survey aired by the Kan public broadcaster gave Netanyahu and his allies 60 seats – one short of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, while a poll released by Channel 12 news gave the bloc 59.
In both polls, Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud was the largest party, with Kan giving it 31 seats and Channel 12 putting it at 30.
Both networks predicted Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid would win 25 seats. The far-right Religious Zionism, which is part of the right-religious bloc, was the third-largest party in each of the polls with 14 seats.
Religious Zionism – an alliance between former minister Bezalel Smotrich, extremist MK Itamar Ben Gvir and the anti-LGBT Noam faction – has recently shot up in the polls at Likud’s expense, though Netanyahu’s party has made gains at the expense of its partners in the run-up to past elections.
National Unity trailed Religious Zionism in the two polls, getting 12 seats in Channel 12’s poll and 11 in Kan’s. The centre-right slate is made up of Defence Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope and political newcomer Gadi Eisenkot, who, like Gantz, is a former IDF chief of staff.
Gantz has touted himself as a candidate for prime minister, but appears to have slim options for cobbling together a coalition.
The ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, which are also partnered with Netanyahu, won eight and seven seats respectively in both surveys.
The right-wing secularist Yisrael Beytenu had seven seats in the Kan poll, while Channel 12 said it would get six. The centre-left Labor had five seats in each survey, while Kan gave five to the left-wing Meretz and Channel 12 gave it four.
The predominantly Arab Hadash-Ta’al alliance – which isn’t aligned with either bloc – was predicted to get four seats in both bolls, as was the Islamist Ra’am, which was part of the previous coalition.
Neither of the polls predicted Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked’s right-wing Jewish Home party nor the Arab nationalist Balad would pick up enough support to enter the next Knesset.
Kan gave parties in the outgoing coalition 56 seats, versus 57 in the 12 surveys, short of a majority without Hadash-Ta’al or another unforeseen source of backing.
Meanwhile, Religious Zionism leader Smotrich unveiled a program of radical, far-reaching legal reforms on Tuesday which, if enacted, would drastically reduce judicial authority and could lead to the termination of Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s criminal trial. He said acceptance of his proposals would be a precondition for his far-right party joining a future coalition following the November 1 elections.
The proposed changes would also hobble the ability of the High Court of Justice to strike down Knesset legislation if it contravenes one of Israel’s Basic Laws, and give the government control over the appointment of all judges, including those for the High Court.
Smotrich claimed the reforms would strengthen Israel’s Jewish and democratic character.
Critics denounced the proposals, with Prime Minister Yair Lapid alleging they emanated from Netanyahu who, he said, “has decided to destroy the legal system and the rule of law in Israel”.
“If this gang gets into power, they’ll make every effort to destroy Israeli democracy, to cancel all the authority of the courts, to destroy the separation of powers in Israel,” Lapid said.
“They don’t even bother to hide this anymore. It’s a deliberate campaign to cancel Netanyahu’s trial, and if they cancel Netanyahu’s trial by using political power, that would mean that Israeli democracy is no longer Israeli democracy as we know it.”
During a Tuesday press conference, Smotrich claimed the Israeli legal system was antagonistic to right-wing politicians and parties.
TIMES OF ISRAEL
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