Palestinian promises ‘unlikely to be implemented’, AIJAC report finds

A new Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) report has found that Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas’s commitments to disarm Hamas, reform governance and end anti-peace messaging are unlikely to be implemented, warning that rushing to recognise a Palestinian state risks entrenching conflict rather than resolving it.

The report, released ahead of expected recognition of the State of Palestine by Australia and other countries at the UN General Assembly next week, analysed over a decade of Palestinian public opinion polling.

AIJAC executive director Colin Rubenstein said Abbas had “pledged reforms that the Palestinian public overwhelmingly reject”.

“Disarming Hamas, ending terrorist stipends, creating a demilitarised state and holding free elections are promises made for Western consumption, not deliverables grounded in Palestinian political reality,” Rubenstein said.

“Because recognition is not linked to real, verifiable change, Australia and other countries risk rewarding extremism and corruption, not building peace.”

The report, titled “Roadmap to viable statehood: Holding the PA to account”, found that Palestinian attitudes were “fundamentally at odds” with Abbas’s recent promises to Western leaders.

Report author Bren Carlill, AIJAC director of special projects, said eleven years of polling showed Palestinians “consistently oppose every one of the reforms Abbas has promised”.

“They support violence, want to keep armed militias and reject demilitarisation,” Carlill said. “They also see the Palestinian Authority as corrupt and illegitimate. Without legitimacy the PA cannot enforce unpopular reforms, but without reforms there can be no viable peace or Palestinian statehood.”

The analysis found that large majorities of Palestinians opposed disarming Hamas or other militias, even as part of a peace settlement, while most rejected the concept of a demilitarised state.

Two-thirds opposed ending stipends to terrorists, while violence and terrorism were “very popular” and preferred over negotiations or non-violence, according to the polling data.

The report found 82 per cent of Palestinians said the Palestinian Authority was corrupt, most feared criticising it, and two-thirds wanted Abbas to resign.

Abbas’s written commitments to French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman included promises that Hamas would be disarmed with no role in a Palestinian state, that Arab and international stabilisation forces would deploy in Gaza, and that a future Palestinian state would be demilitarised.

He also pledged to end “pay-for-slay” stipends for convicted terrorists, cease anti-peace incitement in schools, and hold elections within a year. Western leaders added governance reform to end corruption as a further condition.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced in August that Australia’s recognition would be “predicated on the commitments Australia has received from the Palestinian Authority”.

However, the AIJAC report warned that these “entrenched views make Abbas’s promises politically undeliverable”.

“Attempting to enforce them too quickly risks a collapse of the PA’s already limited legitimacy and possible civil conflict,” it stated. “Yet allowing them not to be implemented signals international acceptance of a corrupt, autocratic regime that cannot monopolise force or deliver peace.”

Rubenstein concluded that if recognition was going to happen, it must be made to count.

“Australia and others should link recognition to clear, enforceable reform efforts that build up Palestinian Authority legitimacy, not grant it as a symbolic gesture,” he said. “Only then is there a chance of building the foundations for a viable Palestinian state and a durable two-state peace.”