Pressure on Israel won’t end the war

In one war Israel defeated Hamas, (it now has no clear chain of command or a formidable armed wing), Hezbollah, Assad’s Syria and Iran. Rather than acknowledge Israel’s achievements, last week Australia joined 27 other countries in signing a joint statement on the “Occupied Palestinian Territories” urging Israel to stop the fighting.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese further emphasised these concerns in a statement last Friday. “Israel’s denial of aid and the killing of civilians, including children, seeking access to water and food cannot be defended or ignored,” he said.

Hamas’s evil use of human shields has been to maximise the deaths of fellow Palestinians. Using civilians as pawns is part of its strategy to delegitimise Israel around the world. Silencing the guns will significantly ease the severe humanitarian situation with the prospect of better aid distribution and additional casualties avoided. Many of Israel’s international partners are increasingly uneasy about the humanitarian impact of the war. Some Israeli analysts worry that widespread trauma in Gaza could serve as fertile ground for a subsequent insurgency, not necessarily under a Hamas banner.

But returning to the previous UN-dominated aid system that Hamas exploited by stealing food would risk Hamas maintaining itself in power and keep the war going, a result that would hardly benefit Gazans in the longer term. The current Hamas business model, with their isolation from Iranian and Qatari funds, has been to loot relief supplies and control the black market to pay their operatives in food and money. They are exhibiting the same ruthlessness they apply to anyone who calls for Hamas to stop the war, lay down their arms and release the hostages.

The joint statement itself is inconsistent. At one point it calls for a “negotiated” ceasefire and then later for an “unconditional” ceasefire. How do you negotiate something unconditionally? It just means abandoning the hostages and leaves open the possibility of future Hamas terrorism. Hamas is hardly likely to agree to a US-sponsored agreement now when Australia and other nations are demanding Israel simply end all pressure on Hamas without conditions, with the implication here that Hamas will continue to rule the Strip. That would make any reconstruction efforts extremely difficult. Key Arab states are waiting for a ceasefire and then may engage in rebuilding Gaza.

While much of our media has blindly accepted Hamas-sourced claims about the situation in Gaza, there’s no doubt there is a heartbreaking humanitarian crisis. The destruction of Gaza is immense: almost the entire population have been displaced at one point or another, and there are shortages of clean water, food, medicine and electricity. The current offensive will almost certainly result in more civilian deaths and suffering. Such is the tragic horror of all wars, even though Israeli incursions are preceded by efforts to evacuate civilians from harm’s way, including announcing “safe zones” or humanitarian corridors.

But calling for an immediate end to the war “now” encourages Hamas intransigence by those that want to play the hostage card to secure an IDF withdrawal and maintain exclusive control over the Strip. It provides no incentive in negotiations for those elements in Hamas who wish to give up governing post-war Gaza, dismantle its military wing, join the Palestinian Authority and uphold a two-state solution.

Nothing can end this conflict quicker than a negotiated deal. US mediators say Israel is bending over backwards to reach a ceasefire deal. But Hamas is repeatedly refusing. In a recent interview the US Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, Adam Boehler, said that the current deal on the table – which would see Hamas release at least 10 remaining hostages in exchange for a path to peace – is the “best they’re going to get”.

“We need to get the other hostages out,” he said. “And then what we have done is we have said hey, there’s a firm pathway to negotiate peace.”

Hamas welcomed last week’s joint statement, noting its call for an immediate end to the war and the introduction of aid through the UN. But it’s noteworthy that it ignored the statement’s reference to release the hostages. By selective quoting from it, Hamas shows they are using it for propaganda.

Earlier this week there was a high-level UN conference on the two-state solution in New York, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, that had been postponed by the Israel-Iran war. We haven’t seen any immediate announcements on recognition of a Palestinian state as the event was an interim step towards another conference later this year. But last week, President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would make a formal announcement to recognise Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September.

Prime Minister Albanese said at the weekend that we’re not about to follow France’s decision in September. But while delaying a call, it’s likely that Australia will recognise Palestinian statehood in the not-too distant future (the government might wait until Albanese has met Trump). This would be a premature and meaningless gesture before a peace agreement is negotiated directly between Israel and the Palestinians and hand a victory laurel to Hamas for its campaign across the past 21 months.

Dr Anthony Bergin is a senior fellow at Strategic Analysis Australia.