Ya’ari doubtful Iran will agree to nuclear deal
Iran is becoming more militarily belligerent, confrontational and has probably already decided it won’t agree to another nuclear deal, according to Ehud Ya’ari, long-time journalist, commentator and Washington Institute Fellow, who discussed this and other regional security topics in an AIJAC Online Live webinar on August 6.
“It is my understanding today, bordering on becoming a conviction… that Iran has taken the decision or is in the process of making a decision not to strike a deal with Mr Biden over the nuclear issue,” Ya’ari told the online gathering.
“When they were talking in Geneva, the Iranians presented unbelievably tough terms to the Americans and the Biden team,” Ya’ari said. “The US simply cannot accept those terms.” These demands included guarantees against reimposing sanctions as well as long-term assurances to international companies that they could do business with Iran without fear of repercussions.
“I see many indications that the Iranians are saying to themselves, ‘what’s in it for us’,” Ya’ari said, about the new negotiations. Both the Iranians and the Americans realise that the nuclear program has advanced since 2015. Iran, however, is only interested in a deal that would not address the implication of those violations.
“The Iranian position at this point is not a word, not a comma will be touched [from the obsolete 2015 deal],” Ya’ari said.
Meanwhile, Iran has moved away from a doctrine of “strategic patience” to Israeli defensive strikes, which has placed the two sides on a path of escalation and limited warfare, he said.
“Dropping strategic patience means that we would see more probably attacks on ships in the Gulf of Oman and elsewhere,” Ya’ari said. “We’ve seen, all of a sudden, an attempt to ignite the Israeli Lebanese frontier.”
While some Israeli commentators have equivocated over the responsibility for recent rocket fire from Lebanon, Ya’ari expressed confidence that they were acting on Hezbollah’s behalf. “When three rockets are fired from Lebanon. It doesn’t happen because some Palestinians felt like it in the refugee camp near Tyre. It happens because Hezbollah encourages them to do that.”
On the topic of the Palestinians, Ya’ari believed the Biden Administration would avoid restarting peace talks that would be unlikely to reach fruition, but instead focus on strengthening Fatah and the Palestinian Authority through smaller side deals with Israel on less contentious issues.
“If Mr Abbas was to retire tomorrow, there is no guarantee whatsoever that his movement, Fatah, the movement that signed the Oslo Accords with Israel, will remain unified, Ya’ari said. “I can see an immediate split into two, three, four factions, at least, maybe many more. So the danger that [Israel’s] partner- slash-adversary in the West Bank will collapse like so many other Arab regimes and movements, clearly [worries the Americans].”
On domestic Israeli political issues, Ya’ari gave credit to the unity government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Alternate Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.
“They managed to work together,” Ya’ari said. “They have managed to pass the budget, after [Israel going] several years [without one] They seem to have reached understandings on many issues on which on which they are basically divided ideologically.”
According to Ya’ari, former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is working to bring down the government within a year and a half, focusing on consolidating power within his party, keeping the ultra-Orthodox parties who followed him into Opposition on-side and wooing disgruntled MKs that comprise weak links in the narrow 61-seat coalition, though the threat of a Netanyahu comeback is paradoxically the factor that keeps the coalition from falling apart.
When asked whether the ultra-Orthodox parties could eventually be convinced to break solidarity with Netanyahu and join the current Government out of self-interest, Ya’ari replied, “the short answer is yes.”
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